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Seismic Shifts, 1992 to 2008: The Northeast
In Part 1 of this diary series (http://www.dailykos.com/...), I looked at the changes in raw vote totals between 1992 and 2008 in the South. Feel free to refresh your memories.Now, in this next...
View Article2014 Race Ratings: Senate, Governors, and House
In 2012, my race ratings were stellar but not perfect: I blew one state in the presidential race (Florida), one Senate race (Montana), and a dozen House races, although I had the Democrats gaining 8...
View ArticleRace Ratings, Take 2: 6 Weeks Out
I made a batch of previous race ratings about a month and a half ago. While the landscape has not changed drastically, there have been some major shifts. In this diary, I will briefly recap my race...
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Where are the Winnable Voters for Each Party: A Comprehensive Look
What factors cause areas to vote in a certain manner? Inherently we know some of them. But we cannot completely project elections based on one factor alone. After all, the state with the largest...
View ArticleRace Ratings 3.0: Two Weeks Out
Well, it's time for another installment of my race ratings. Here we go! I will put previous ratings in parentheses, with my September ratings first and my August ratings secondTilt = 60% chance of...
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For All the Marbles: My Final Race Ratings of 2014 (with a few maps thrown in)
Well, it's that time again. On Tuesday, everybody will vote, and that means that I need to put myself out there again with some predictions. Last time around, I did quite well. I messed up only one...
View ArticleWhat the Hell is Happening Over There? A Guide to Israel's Upcoming Elections
Israel's politics are complicated, to say the least. They're also absolutely fascinating. Luckily for those of us who love to discuss elections, one is coming up quite soon, on March 17 to be exact....
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The 2015 UK Election, Projected and Mapped
What's that, you say? The 2015 UK election hasn't happened yet? Well, it's happening soon, May to be exact, and thankfully for us there is a website called Electoral Calculus which posts projections...
View ArticleIsraeli Election Liveblog
Hi everyone. The Israeli election is tomorrow (March 17); polls close at 1PM Pacific (and now you East Coasters finally know what it feels to always do the math!). No idea how long results will take....
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UK 2015 Election: Charts and Final Thoughts
Thankfully for those of us who enjoy election data analysis, Lord Ashcroft conducted a huge telephone poll that is very similar to an exit poll, and thus we can examine the voting behavior of various...
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2016 (and some prior history) Under Proportional Representation: An Alternate...
I had to take a few liberties here, but I used 2016 primary results, with some adjustments, to guess how well each of five theoretical parties would do in a 2016 proportional representation election....
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France's Political Geography: Southwestern France
As one of only two countries outside North America I’ve been to more than once, France holds a special place in my heart. France also has a very interesting election coming up over the next year....
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French Political Geography: Part 2
This is part two of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an...
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French Political Geography, Part 3: North By Northeast
This is part three of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an...
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French Political Geography, Part 4: The South
This is part four of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an...
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