California's Districts: Downballot and Proposition 8 Numbers and Analysis
I decided to look not just at Presidential numbers, but also Gubernatorial, Senatorial, and Social Issues (as measured by Prop. 8 from 2008). California's PVI is about D+8, so I normalized everything...
View ArticleSenate and Governor Predictions with Margins
This isn't quite my last round of predictions (I'll do one the weekend before Election Day), but this is what I have right now. I'm not going to predict margins on Safe races. Senate unless otherwise...
View ArticlePredictions and Key Counties for Election Night
There are going to be two parts of this diary; Benchmarks and Race Predictions. I’m going to be doing President, Senate, Governor, AND House (House is Part 2, though). So please read through it all,...
View ArticlePredictions: The House
I know there's a rule about clogging the diary bar, but there are sooo few prediction diaries. Here's mine for the House.Double Digit Races:AR-4, NC-11, and NC-13: We can welcome Tom Cotton, Mark...
View ArticlePollster Analysis: 2012 State Polls
I know Nate Silver had something similar to this, but I wanted to do my own pollster analysis. Each poll here is taken October 15 or later, because the state of the race stabilized around then after...
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Georgia Cleanish 8-6 Dem Map
Here we go. This is hypothetical, of course.1st District: Jack Kingston (R) Statistics (from 2008): R+20, 70% White, 23% BlackThis district takes up much of Republican South Georgia. It's very rural,...
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8-4-1 North Carolina
This is my newest stab at an alternate (Democratic) gerrymander of North Carolina, one of my favorite states to redistrict.1st: GK Butterfield (D) Partisan Stats: D+13, 68% Dem Avg Racial Stats: 50%...
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Who Were the Obama-Allen Voters? 2012 Senate and Presidential Comparisons,...
On Daily Kos Elections, many commentators throughout the summer and fall assumed Tim Kaine would outperform Barack Obama's total in Virginia. This turned out to be true. However, commentators also...
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How Could Anyone Vote Romney-Baldwin? 2012 Presidential and Senate...
In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin overcame fears by many that she would be too liberal for the state, aided by Tommy Thompson's weak campaign partially stemming from a very competitive 3-way primary between...
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21st Century Orange County: A Walk-Through
Orange County is one of the few counties in America that conjures up a stereotype almost anywhere in the country. To some, it's beautiful beaches. To others, it's the heart of Cold War-era...
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To Create a More Perfect California: What California's Redistricting...
California's redistricting commission was a grand experiment that, by and large, turned out to be successful. However, I think there were some errors in the map, and I wanted to redraw the state....
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Fair Map of Wisconsin
I like this map because it's fair both in terms of respecting Wisconsin's purple-ness by creating lots of swing districts and because each district makes sense geographically and for the most part...
View Article2004 vs 2012 in Maps: Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia
I love maps, especially ones of election results. They fascinate me, and in fact are the reason I started following politics around the 2004 presidential election. However, too often they're just not...
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2004 vs 2012: Florida and Georgia
In the first part of this series, http://www.dailykos.com/... I explored the causes of Democratic trends in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia, three of the four swing states that have clearly...
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What If We Used 1990s District Lines Forever?: An Alternate History
The following diary is an alternate history. There are two ground rules: 1) As with the 1920 Census, the 2000 reapportionment did not occur, nor did the one in 2010. 2) No districts were altered...
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2004 vs. 2012: The Great Plains
This is part 3 of my installment on the changes between 2004 and 2012 in various states. In Part 1, I examined Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, while in Part 2 I looked at Georgia and Florida....
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Want To Know How Blue An Area Is? Look At Public Transit
The title of this diary may seem intuitive. Liberal areas elect liberals. Liberals like public transit, both for economic and environmental reasons. Conservative areas don't elect liberals....
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A Fair Map of Washington
After a visit to Washington over spring break, I wanted to try my best to draw a COI map of the state, which I don't believe I've seen drawn before. I believe my effort was fair. My guidelines:1)...
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California's White Voters, By County
We all know California, never a lily-white state to start with, has rapidly diversified over the last generation. But California's White vote is far from monolithic. It's not easy task to figure out...
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Seismic Shifts, 1992 to 2008: The South
The Clinton coalition and the Obama coalition both led to electoral college landslides, but with some very different states. Clinton twice triumphed in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky,...
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