This is part four of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.
[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an average election, the Socialists will receive 53% of the two-party vote, while a PVI of R+7 means the Republicans will receive 57%. In some areas, one of the minor parties earns more votes than one of the major parties. I will note areas with strong third-party presence but PVIs are going to be calculated among the two traditional major parties]
Here is a map of France, with the region being covered today in blue.
Auvergne (2.1% of France’s population) could be classified as either an extension of Southwestern France or as part of Southeastern France. Since it’s east of Paris, I put it with the southeast, but politically it’s more a part of the southwest, with a strong left-wing working class base.
Cantal is a rural, mountainous department in Auvergne’s southwest. Those of you who have read this series since part one may remember Aveyron, a neighboring department contained in the region of Midi-Pyrenees. Cantal is part of a different region but is politically extremely similar. Both (like Bretagne) are traditionally areas with strong Catholicism, a contrast from the more anti-clerical southwest of the country. Thus, both stuck with the French right despite being poor, rural, and southern. However, in today’s very secular France, Cantal has begun to vote like its poor neighbors. A department which was R+10 forty years ago is now R+1 and continuing to move leftward. The main town and agricultural center of Aurillac (famous for Cantal cheese) has consistently been ten points to the left of its department.
To the east of Cantal is Haute-Loire. It is also a part of heavily Catholic south-central France and exhibits the same patterns as Cantal, moving from R+8 in the 1970s to exactly 50-50 today.
In Auvergne’s center is Puy-de-Dome and its main city, Clermont-Ferrand. Like Nantes and Lille, Clermont-Ferrand is pretty unknown outside of the country because there are no tourist attractions, but it is sizeable (metro area of 467,000). Based on population relative to the country, Cincinnati is a good comparison. Politically, however, it behaves much differently, as the Puy-de-Dome department is S+8. Clermont-Ferrand also has a significant university presence, but I don’t think that’s enough to explain the fact that both the city and the department lurched over 5 points leftward between 1995 and 2007. I don’t have a good explanation; maybe somebody else does. Clermont-Ferrand, once best known for being the home of Michelin, has lost many manufacturing jobs over the years, but it has done a decent job replacing them with “knowledge economy” jobs thanks to its universities. The city is now a very left-wing S+12.
Finally, in Auvergne’s north sits Allier. Both in and out of France, it is best known as the department which contains Vichy, the seat of the Vichy French government during World War Two. Politically it is an interesting place. It has been moderately left-wing for decades, hovering around S+4 for at least forty years. Its largest town, the industrial town of Montlucon, is S+9 (another very left-wing part of France with a declining population, having lost almost 40% from its peak), but Vichy remains right-wing; its R+7 PVI score makes it one of the most conservative places in this part of France.
You may be wondering, after reading this series, where all the votes for the French right come from. After all, the French right has never in the modern era earned less than 46% of the two-party vote, an impressive achievement not matched in most other major Western countries. Other than some parts of Northeastern France, we haven’t really encountered them. But they are about to start coming fast and furious as we move into true Southeastern France.
The first region, and the only remaining non-Mediterranean one except Paris, is Rhone-Alpes (9.8% of France’s population). Relative populations are important to keep in mind at this point as well; Rhone-Alpes is about the size of France’s six smallest regions combined (Corsica, Limousin, Franche-Comte, Champagne, Basse Normandie, and Bourgogne).
In the region’s southwest sit Ardeche and Drome, separated by the Rhone River. Both have stayed close to 50-50 for decades. Today, mountainous Ardeche is S+1 and Drome is R+2; it appears Drome may be moving slightly rightward. Drome’s major town, Valence, is S+2.
Northwest of them is Loire, which has always been just a tad right of center. Today it is R+1. Its rural areas are R+4, while its three towns are all left of center. The largest, St. Etienne (metro area 500,000), is S+6 with a significant leftward trend, as we have seen in most larger cities. The smaller St. Chamond is S+2.
The most important department here is Rhone, home to Lyon, France’s second city (although the gap between first and second city is more like the UK than Spain, Italy, or Germany). In most of the Western world, one might expect the department containing the second most important city in a country to lean left, or at the very least the second-largest city to do so. As we’ve discovered throughout this series, however, France is different. There are two Socialist strongholds in the Rhone department, but Lyon is not one of them. The first is the heavily Muslim suburb of Vaulx. Today, it is S+19. This is the first heavily Muslim area encountered in the diary, but I would figure nobody is surprised that Muslims in France overwhelmingly oppose politicians such as Sarkozy. Another characteristic of Muslim areas is a strong vote for the leftist candidates such as Melenchon and low vote totals for the liberal centrist Francois Bayrou; both are reflected here. Interestingly, Muslim turnout is not as low relative to the national average as Hispanic turnout in the US; however, it is not as high as Black turnout either.
Lyon’s largest suburb, Villeurbane, is the other Socialist area. It is S+5. It used to be an industrial city, but like Clermont-Ferrand, has successfully transitioned into a city with a 21st century economy. Of its 146,000 residents, 37,000 are students, which presumably explains the lean to the left and the weak support for the National Front.
Lyon has nine other significant suburbs, most of which are purple, including the next largest, St. Priest. However, there are two exceptions, R+8 Caluire-et-Cuire (cool name!) and R+11 St. Foy. Both are wealthy.
Lastly, there is the city of Lyon itself. Lyon used to be a relative bastion of the right, but as with most French cities this has declined somewhat. In 2012, for the first time in a very long time, it was to the left of the country, at S+1 (this is down from R+7 as recently as 1995). Lyon and its suburbs combined are today S+1 as well, making the Lyon Metro Area one of France’s more right-wing ones. Of course, France’s urban area range from socialist to centrist, with one glaring exception. And finally, there are some rural areas in Rhone. These are R+9 and are what keep the department conservative.
And at this point we have reached the Alps.
Northeast of Lyon is Ain. It is R+8 and contains the S+2 town of Bourg-en-Bresse, situated just at the foot of the Alps.
The finals three departments in Rhone-Alpes are very mountainous.
Isere can be divided into two very different areas. The northwestern half of the department is the last part of the Rhone Valley before the Alps begin, and it is center-right with 50-50 towns and somewhat conservative rural areas, just like neighboring regions.
The Grenoble area is another beast entirely. This is the only left-wing part of Eastern France, which is pretty incredible when you think about it. 8 and a half regions and it’s just Grenoble. But why is it so different? Well, it is one of France’s leading high-tech centers. Rennes, the other one mentioned so far, is also pretty left-wing. It is definitely more of a globalist city, having the second most international high-skilled workers after Paris. Like most high-tech areas, it also has a major university, and the city has 54,000 students. If there is a Silicon Valley in Europe (there isn’t exactly, obviously), the Grenoble area has as good of a claim to the title as anywhere. What is interesting about Grenoble and its suburbs, however, is not just the support for left-of-center parties, as in the US, but also the support for actual leftists, which is strong here. Why that is, I cannot say. The city and suburbs are politically similar, all hovering around S+13.
With all that, one would expect Isere to be a Socialist stronghold. Interestingly, because of its overwhelmingly rural nature, it isn’t. R+2 rural areas keep the department at only S+1.
Finally, way up in the Alps are Savoie and Haute-Savoie. Both are popular areas for mountain tourism, such as skiing and hiking. Savoie is R+4, although its largest town (Chambery) is S+4. Nearby Aix-Le-Bains is more of a tourist destination and is R+9 (this is a big variation from touristy areas in the US, which tend to be Democratic). Further north, in Haute-Savoie (R+11) sits the tourist mecca of Annecy (R+4 with a weak Front National), only about 15 miles from Geneva.
The first of France’s three Mediterranean regions is Languedoc-Rousillon (4.1% of France’s population). It stretches from the Spanish border to almost halfway to the Italian border.
First, on the Spanish border and containing some of the Pyrenees is Pyrenees Orientales. This is 50-50 territory, melding France’s left-wing southwest with its right-wing Mediterranean coastline. It is R+2. The main city, Perpignan, is also R+2, although it is moving left more quickly than the region is.
Neighboring Aude contains the towns of Narbonne (S+2) and Carcassonne (S+3), but in true southwestern France fashion, it’s the rural areas that provide Socialists with big margins, as the department is S+5.
Herault contains the coastal towns of Montpellier and Beziers. It is here that we really see the merging of the Cote d’Azur with Southwestern France, and the result is once again a 50-50 department. And at this point it’s probably important to talk about the Cote d’Azur.
Southeastern France was historically (and I mean historically, as in the 19th century) the base of the French left, such as the opposition to Napoleon III. This effect gradually petered out, but it did not become a base of the right until two events occurred in the midst of France’s 30 Glorious Years (1945-1975). First, people began moving for retirement purposes. America has Florida, and France has the Cote d’Azur. These older people were overwhelmingly middle class, as the older poor remained in their original homes in colder parts of the country. Secondly, France lost/gave up Algeria. This led to an exodus of about a million French people, most of whom held very right-wing views and most of whom settled in various cities along the Mediterranean coast, including Perpignan, Montpellier, Marseille, Toulon, and Nice. This dual shock to the existing population led to a strong move to the right. Imagine if Florida didn’t have Caribbean immigration and you’ll get a sense of the impact. Anyways, back to Herault…
Montpellier, the larger town (or city, arguably), has 61,000 students among its 150,000 residents, making it one of the most student-heavy places in France. It is the only reason Herault is 50-50 instead of pretty safe territory for the Republicans. Today, it is S+10, with a strong Left (similar to many college campuses), a weak National Front (also par for the course), and a very strong red trend.
Beziers, not having a major university, is R+5 and really fits in better with the medium-sized and smaller towns in Herault, all of which give much love to the Le Pen family. Most of the rest of the department is just a tad right of center, except for the town of Agde, which for whatever reason is R+10.
The French National Front does not have one specific base, but if one were to choose a department as its base, Gard would be the best choice. This coastal department is the only one where Marine Le Pen came in first in the 2012 presidential election. Interestingly, it is not a stronghold of the right generally, as it is only R+3. Nimes, the largest town, is R+1. As with Herault and Aude, rural areas (many of which are actually small beachfront communities rather than agricultural) are exhibiting a significant trend to the right.
Finally, there is the only non-coastal department in Languedoc-Rousillon, which is Lozere. Like neighboring Aveyron and Cantal (neither of which are in Languedoc-Rousillon), Lozere is traditionally a bastion of the Catholic right, but secularization has diminished this significantly. R+13 in the 1970s, it is now R+2.
Jumping into the water and swimming for quite a while, one reaches Corsica (0.5% of France’s population), the smallest region in European France. Famously, Corsica was home to Napoleon and has a significant Italian influence. The island is steadily blue, at R+7. Its largest city, Ajaccio, is R+8 and more white-collar, but its second city, the impoverished port city of Bastia, is only R+1.
Finally, swimming back across part of the Mediterranean one reaches France’s secondary tourism center, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur (Provence for short, 7.5% of France’s population). This is the third-largest region in France by population after Ile-de-France and Rhone-Alpes. Nord is fourth, and together they combine for more than two in five French residents. The south of France is as steadily conservative as the south of America.
There are three less-populated inland departments and three more-populated coastal ones. The two rural Alpine provinces in the northeast of the department are Hautes-Alpes and Alpes de Haute Provence. France isn’t always known for creative names! Mountainous France, whether in the Massif Central, the Pyrenees, or the Alps, tends to be 50-50 at worst for the Socialists, and this is no exception. Hautes-Alpes is R+1, as is its main town of Gap. Alpes de Haute Provence is 50-50 territory and, interestingly, has a strong leftist movement.
Vaucluse lies in the Rhone Valley a little under 100 miles south of Lyon. It is most well-known for containing the well-preserved and historic town of Avignon, home to the antipopes for a while a few centuries ago. Avignon is the only red spot in a sea of blue, and it is a pale red at that (S+2). The rest of the department is politically similar to the coastal parts of Provence: a pretty deep hue of blue with a strong National Front. Vaucluse’s rural areas are R+9, while the smaller towns of Orange, Carpentras, and Cavaillon range R+10 to R+14.
In the southwest of France’s southeast lies Bouches-du-Rhone, home to Marseille. Marseille has a reputation as a relatively dirty, unsafe city, not a tourist destination. Marseille itself is an R+1 city, and in fact there is not a single suburb of Marseille which is more red than S+2 Martigues, which given its location about 12 miles west of Marseille along the coast may not even count as a suburb at all. Interestingly, Martigues, along with three other towns in the western part of Bouches-du-Rhone (Istres, which is next to Martigues; Miramas, on the other side of Istres; and Arles, at the far western end of the department) used to be red territory until the Sarkozy realignment of 2007. Just as many urban centers moved a few points leftward in response to the moderate National Frontification of the French right, many more culturally conservative areas moved the other way. The most conservative of all towns in the department is Marignane, a working-class town home to Marseille’s airport, which has a very strong National Front and is R+12. Aix-en-Provence, probably the most touristy place in the department, is R+5, although it’s the only town with a significant trend leftward.
On the whole, Bouches-du-Rhone is R+5, a three point rightward shift since 1995 and a twelve point one since the 1970s, when the demographics here were very different. The city of Marseille has moved two points leftward, while almost everywhere else has moved a few points the other way. While Bouches-du-Rhone is a mostly urban department, its rural turf is still significant, and conservative, at R+8.
Heading east down the coast, the next department is Var. Var is hard right, the fourth most conservative department in all of France, and also is a good area for the National Front. The towns here range from medium blue to deepest blue. Interestingly Var, like its neighbor, was purple until the 1990s. The main city in Var is R+10 Toulon, which contains a strong military presence, some manufacturing, shipbuilding, and other economic sectors. The least blue town in the department is La Seyne sur Mer (R+5), located across a small bay from Toulon. It’s historically a shipbuilding center, but this is disappearing and the town is becoming more immigrant-heavy, as with some of the old manufacturing centers in Northern England. At the other end of the spectrum are R+19 Frejus and R+22 St. Rapahel, both at the far eastern end of the department. Rural areas of the department are R+14, and Var as a whole is R+12.
I apologize for the length of this diary but I hope you found it worth the read. We have now reached the end, with the department of Alpes-Maritimes. This was Nicolas Sarkozy’s best department in the entire country, at R+16. It has always been the bluest in Provence, but it was a much more reasonable R+5 a few decades ago. In the US, even the most conservative states, like Utah or Alabama, have some Democratic cities. Not so in Provence. Avignon is the only place in the whole region which can charitably be described as left-wing. And here in Alpes-Maritimes, the most left-wing place is R+11 Grasse, located in the hills above Cannes. Coming in a close second is the city of Nice, which is R+12. Everywhere else is at least R+15, including the two other famous towns, Cannes (R+20) and Cagnes-sur-Mer (R+19). But the honor of most conservative town in France outside the Paris area goes to R+23 Mandelieu-La Napoule, a beachfront town just west of Cannes.
