Well, it's time for another installment of my race ratings. Here we go! I will put previous ratings in parentheses, with my September ratings first and my August ratings second
Tilt = 60% chance of victory
Lean = 75% chance of victory
At this point in the cycle, Likely and Safe are essentially identical. Time is running out.
Senate ratings:
New Hampshire (Lean D, Lean D, Likely D)
Colorado (Tilt D, Lean D, Lean D)
Iowa (Pure Tossup, Tilt D, Lean D)
North Carolina (Lean D, Tilt D, Tilt D)
New Hampshire and North Carolina appear to have stabilized at mid-single digit leads for the incumbents. With only two weeks left, they should both have 75% chances at winning. Colorado and Iowa continue to move the wrong way for Democrats, but I don't think Republicans have the clear edge in either one of them. Assuming pollster error in Colorado both feels ridiculous and is well-founded.
Alaska (Tilt R, Tossup, Lean D)
Arkansas (Lean R, Tilt R, Tossup)
Kansas (Tilt R, Tilt R, Safe R)
Louisiana (Lean R, Lean R, Lean R)
Kentucky (Lean R, Lean R, Lean R)
Georgia (Lean R, Lean R, Lean R)
LA/KY/GA have all been very stable races, with significant but not impossible hurdles to Democratic victory. Kansas appears to no longer be going Greg Orman's way. His money disadvantage is a real problem, as is Kansas's blood red hue. Arkansas has seen more bad polling for Democrats, as has Alaska. Both have broken in Republicans' favor over the past two months, and my ratings changes reflect that.
Everything else has been off the playing field since at least July. South Dakota is still a Likely R race unless Rounds gets indicted.
Governorships:
Alaska (Pure Tossup, Lean R, Safe R)
Illinois (Tilt D, Tilt R, Lean R)
These two have seen big movement against Republican nominees.
Wisconsin (Tilt R, Pure Tossup, Lean R)
Connecticut (Tilt D, Tilt D, Lean D)
Kansas (Tilt D, Tilt D, Pure Tossup)
These three have bounced around somewhat, and any could flip within the next two weeks.
Florida (Lean D, Lean D, Lean D)
Georgia (Lean R, Lean R, Lean R)
Colorado (Tilt D, Tilt D, Tilt D)
Michigan (Tilt R, Tilt R, Tilt R)
Crist was only down because of being outspent. I expect him to climb until he wins by about five. Deal should win in an underperformance. Hickenlooper may well win with under 50%, and the same goes for Snyder. All four of these races have been fundamentally stable.
Arkansas (Safe R, Tilt R, Tilt R)
Massachusetts (Lean D, Likely D, Too early to call)
Apparently the DGA was not seeing what I thought they were seeing in Arkansas. That one is over. Massachusetts is blue enough I expect a Coakley win, but she is not polling wonderfully and I consider it competitive now.
As for the House...
Formerly Competitive, now Safe:
Open MT-AL (Daines --> Zinke)
NV-3 (Heck)
Open MI-8 (Rogers --> Bishop)
IA-4 (King)
Open WI-6 (Petri --> Grothman)
MN-2 (Kline)
NY-23 (Reed)
MI-7 (Walberg)
Open NY-21 (Owens --> Stefanik, GOP pickup)
IL-13 (Davis)
These were all potential Democratic victories back when the political climate was a bit less clear. Over the past two months, it's become clear Democrats are highly unlikely to win any of them.
CA-26 (Brownley)
Open ME-2 (Michaud --> Cain)
NH-2 (Kuster)
The playing field on the other side has shrunk much less, but these three appear close to over.
Leaning Democratic:
NY-24 (Maffei: Lean D, Safe D)
MN-7 (Peterson: Safe D, Safe D)
These two later additions to the playing field are still probable Democratic holds.
CA-7 (Bera: Lean D, Lean D)
NY-11 (Grimm --> Recchia, Dem pickup: Lean D, Lean D)
GA-12 (Barrow: Lean D, Lean D)
IL-10 (Schneider: Lean D, Lean D)
NY-18 (Maloney: Lean D, Lean D)
Open MA-6 (Tierney --> Moulton: Lean D, Lean D)
All these should be single-digit Democratic wins.
Leaning Republican:
Open VA-10 (Wolf --> Comstock: Tilt R, Tilt R)
Open NJ-3 (Runyan --> MacArthur: Lean R, Tilt R)
Open WV-2 (Capito --> Mooney: Lean R, Lean R)
Tilting to the Incumbent:
AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick: Lean D, Lean D)
MN-8 (Nolan: Tilt D, Lean D)
IL-12 (Enyart: Lean D, Safe D)
FL-2 (Southerland: Tilt R, Tilt R)
CO-6 (Coffman: Tilt D, Tilt D)
NE-2 (Terry: Tilt R, Tilt R)
AZ-1 and IL-12 have gotten more competitive than I expected, while CO-6 appears to have Coffman in control.
Tilting toward Defeat:
WV-3 (Rahall --> Jenkins: Pure Tossup, Pure Tossup)
FL-25 (Garcia --> Curbelo: Tilt R, Tilt D)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter --> Guinta: Tilt R, Tilt D)
AZ-2 (Barber --> McSally: Tilt R, Tilt R)
NY-1 (Bishop --> Zeldin: Tilt R, Tilt R)
CA-52 (Peters --> DeMaio: Lean R, Lean R)
Open IA-3 (Latham --> Appel: Pure Tossup, Pure Tossup)
Total: GOP pickup of 6 in House, Democratic pickup of 3.5 Governorships, GOP pickup of 6.5 in Senate.