I had to take a few liberties here, but I used 2016 primary results, with some adjustments, to guess how well each of five theoretical parties would do in a 2016 proportional representation election. A few states were excluded (Alaska and Hawaii, the Dakotas, Montana, and New Mexico), while California was estimated based on an average of Arizona, Oregon, and Washington and New Jersey is an average of New York and Delaware.
Liberal Party (30%): America’s pre-eminent party, although just barely, is the Liberal Party. Since Prime Minister Franklin Roosevelt established his New Deal Coalition, the party has mostly been successful nationally. They ruled for 20 consecutive years, coming back only 8 years later behind the youthful Prime Minister Kennedy. Upon his assassination, Prime Minister Johnson took office and proceeded to infuriate many members of his own party by pushing for a Civil Rights Act. Worried about triggering a no-confidence vote, Johnson waited until 1968 to do so before stepping down, having already attempted to create his Great Society. At this point, the party unraveled, and a new party known as the American Party was created by George Wallace, taking many “Dixie Liberals.” This party ruled in coalition with Conservative Prime Minister Nixon, Liberal Prime Minister Carter, and Conservative Prime Minister Nixon, while the Liberals sat in the wilderness for over a decade. Prime Minister Bill Clinton attempted to move the Liberals to the center in the 1990s, running the country in a grand coalition with the Conservatives in an attempt to break with the party’s past. The party base began to tilt leftwards in response to the Iraq War under opposition leader John Kerry, and Kerry was overthrown in 2005 by the left-wing of his party and its Black members, with Barack Obama assuming the party leadership and eventually taking over as Prime Minister, ruling in coalition with the Social Democrats, creating America’s first truly center-left government since Jimmy Carter. Now, with his 8-year term limit reached as Prime Minister, the party is running Hillary Clinton. This is their expected electoral map.
This year, polling shows the Liberals significantly lower than in 2008 and 2012, perhaps reflecting their turn to the center under Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama’s unique charisma. The party’s base sits in the Deep South and on the coasts, both East and West. They are weakest in the Mountain West, on the Great Plains, and in the Upper South. Perhaps in an attempt to make certain that she is the largest vote-getter on the left, Clinton has promised to join a coalition with the Social Democrats rather than the Conservatives as her husband did.
Social Democratic Party (22%): The left’s step-child, the Social Democratic Party was created in in the mid-1930s after Prime Minister Roosevelt’s turn to the center and was led by Henry Wallace from that year until he stepped down for health reasons in 1959. They were never too successful with Wallace nor with other leaders Wayne Morse (1959-1970), George McGovern (1970-1992), Russ Feingold (1992-2003), or Howard Dean (2003-2013). However, they did rule in a coalition with Prime Minister Kennedy from 1961 until his assassination in 1963, and they briefly became the opposition party in the mid-1970s as the Liberals were still dealing with fallout from the Civil Rights Act and Vietnam War. In 2009, Dean led the party into its first government since 1964. The party helped provide votes for a public option as part of health care reform and for a cap-and-trade bill and appears headed for its greatest success since the 1970s in this election behind the surprisingly beloved Bernie Sanders.
The party shares some similar bases with the Liberals, such as the coasts, although it is stronger in New England and may be the largest party in California for the first time since 1972. However, due to its very White base, the party is extremely weak in the Deep South. Another above-average area is the Upper Midwest, including Michigan and the Chicago area. The party has a sharp north-south division, polling weaker than its national average in every state in the southern half of the country geographically except California.
Conservative Party (14%): The Conservative party shifted to the center in response to the New Deal and was rewarded with 8 years of unrestrained rule under Prime Minister Eisenhower. They narrowly lost the 1960 election but came back to power in 1968 in coalition with George Wallace’s American Party. In 1976, a break-away occurred on the party’s right flank, with religious conservatives joining some strident conservatives in the Revival Party, a party which emphasized both religious revival and a revival of America’s constitutional principles. Conservative Prime Minister Reagan ruled in a 3-way coalition with the American and Revival Parties, but his successor George H. W. Bush chose to jettison this in favor of a grand coalition with the Liberals (after his infamous “Read My Lips: No Grand Coalition” promise during the campaign). For 12 years, 4 under Bush and 8 under Clinton, the country was ruled by a grand coalition.
The 2000 election was a turning point, marking the end of this coalition. It appeared Clinton’s designated successor, Al Gore, would become Prime Minister, but at the last minute George W. Bush offered the Social Democrats a deal that was too good to pass up: he would make Feingold Deputy Prime Minister, a new position, would promise not to cut entitlements, and would let the Social Democrats choose his first Supreme Court nominee, a key concession given the delicate split on the court as it was currently constituted and particularly a concession on the part of the Revival Party, the other element in the coalition. Feingold agreed, but in 2003, Bush announced plans to invade Iraq. The Social Democrats promptly withdrew from the coalition, and Bush had to scramble and create a four-way grand coalition with every party but the Social Democrats. After the 2004 election, he narrowly was able to recreate the “three-legged stool coalition” and kick out the Liberals, who promptly overthrew Kerry in favor of a novice with little experience but lots of talent. Now, after 8 years in the wilderness, the Conservative Party has nominated Marco Rubio, who has promised to appoint John Kasich as Treasury Secretary and make him responsible for all economic policy.
The Conservative Party is strongest in parts of the South and in Upper New England, although polls show them with pretty weak numbers all around. I excluded Ohio because Kasich dramatically changes the results there. The American Party has stolen much of their base in the Mid-Atlantic states. They very well may end up the smallest of the five parties after this election, an unthinkable result for a party used to being one of the top two.
American Party (20%): The American Party was very successful at serving as a coalition partner, doing so from its creation in 1968 until 1988, for both Conservative PMs Nixon and Reagan and Liberal PM Carter. Since then, however, it has been in the political wilderness, as American sensibilities on racial issues have become more liberal. The party’s slow decline began to reverse itself after the Great Recession, with Jeff Sessions taking over as party leader from the aging Jesse Helms in 2002 and, after a decade-long rebuild, steering the party to modest success in the 2012 elections. For 2016, however, he stepped aside and let businessman Donald Trump run the party. Trump is also notable as the first Northerner to run the party.
The American Party draws strength from the Deep South, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest, and is weakest in the Midwest and among Mormons.
Revival Party (14%): The Revival Party is the most explicitly religious major party in the developed West, unless one counts Israel as the West. They served in coalition from their creation in 1976 until 1988 and then again from 2005 until 2009. Their previous leader, Rick Perry, stepped down after a very poor 2012 showing. The party let Sam Brownback lead them for a couple years as a caretaker and then surprisingly chose political novice Ted Cruz as their new leader.
The Revival Party shows extreme weakness in the Northeast and great strength on the Great Plains and especially in Mormon Country, with a solid showing in the South.