This is part three of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.
[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an average election, the Socialists will receive 53% of the two-party vote, while a PVI of R+7 means the Republicans will receive 57%. In some areas, one of the minor parties earns more votes than one of the major parties. I will note areas with strong third-party presence but PVIs are going to be calculated among the two traditional major parites]
Here is a map of France, with the region being covered today in red (and a bit of orange)
Today’s diary will cover North and Northeast France, from the Belgian border areas down to Alsace.
Nord-Pas de Calais (6.1% of France’s population) is France’s northernmost region. Historically, it has a strong labor/mining heritage, much like central Appalachia. The great novel Germinal, among others, is set here. It consists of only two departments, as it is one of France’s smallest departments geographically despite its relatively large population. This area, like neighboring Belgium, is very dense.
Pas de Calais contains most of the province’s Atlantic coast but does not border Belgium. As in Appalachia, the left has seen better days. However, unlike West Virginia, Pas de Calais still favors the Socialists, just not by the margins it used to. A good comparison could be West Virginia in the 1990s, when it was still a Democratic state but the Republican margins of defeat were starting to shrink. Every major town in Pas de Calais supports the Socialists, and the rural areas (many of which are actually small mining communities historically, rather than agriculture) do as well. The most left-wing is Lievin, at S+17. No major community is worse for the Socialists than S+5, but the rural areas are only S+4.
The department as a whole and most of its towns have moved about five points to the right in the last 20 years. Many voters in this part of France now support the National Front, which is strong here, and have as an ideological preference National Front > Socialists > Republicans. This is similar to UKIP in parts of Northern England’s historic coal-mining areas. Three ideological outliers in the department are Arras, Calais, and Boulogne-sur-Mer; the latter has actually moved left while the others are stable. Boulogne’s movement could be explained by the fact that its economy is historically fishing-based rather than mining-based or perhaps due to its medium-sized university providing a liberal influence.
Nord is essentially Pas de Calais with more people and a bit more variance. It has also moved about five points rightward, but since it was never as left-wing as Pas de Calais it is now swing territory rather than light red. Rural Nord is essentially 50-50, a big drop from S+7 in 1995. There is a much larger ideological range among Nord’s cities, and there is more support for the Left/Communists here. They include bastions of the left which remain left-wing ( S+18 Grande-Synthe, S+9 Armentieres), left-wing bastions abandoning their heritage (Coudekerque was S+14 in 1995 and is now S+6, while Wattrelos has dropped from S+15 to S+3, among the largest shifts in the nation), wealthy suburban right-wing turf (R+7 Lambersart and R+15 (!) Marcq-en-Baroeul), traditionally swingy territory (Tourcoing and Dunkerque), and two cities that are moving leftward rather than rightward, S+14 Roubaix and S+10 Lille, the base of France’s most anonymous large metropolitan area.
Over the next decade, it will be interesting to see whether Nord-Pas de Calais continues to move rightward like West Virginia has. I would expect it to, although Lille has more of a white-collar liberal base than Charleston does.
In the US, Champagne (2.0% of France’s population) is a cause for celebration, but the Socialist Party has little to celebrate about their recent performances in this rural part of France.
At the north end of the province lies the department of Ardennes, a well-known area to World War I and Franco-Prussian War history buffs. Today, Ardennes is also a battleground, which is likely disappointing to Socialists who remember solid victories here prior to 2007. This area has a mix of agriculture and industry (trains and cars, but no longer metallurgy). The National Front is strong here and in the rest of rural Champagne, as in neighboring Nord-Pas de Calais.
Champagne’s population center, Reims, is located in Marne. Marne has seen the second-largest rightward shift among Champagne’s departments. In the 2012 election, it was R+7, a sharp decline from the purple status it had prior to 2007. Clearly, something about Nicolas Sarkozy helped draw normally Socialist voters into his party. It is the rural areas in this part of Champagne which really stand out. I’ve noted in previous diaries that rural France tends to be somewhat close to 50-50, unlike rural America, but rural Marne is about 60% Republican. Reims, the major city, is S+2, while the smaller Chalons is exactly 50-50.
Aube, south of Marne, has gone from 50-50 in 1974 to R+2 in 1995 to R+8 today. Its major town of Troyes has stayed put at R+2.
Haute-Marne, the “tail” of Champagne, has also seen about a seven-point rightward shift from the days of Francois Mitterand.
Lorraine (3.6% of France’s population) is probably best known for being split in half after German victory in the Franco-Prussian War. It doesn’t appear this split had much political effect. Interestingly, both Lorraine and neighboring Alsace had strong improvements for the Socialist Party in the late 1980s and the 1990s, only to see those gains reversed in the last decade.
Meuse, in the region’s west, is R+5, the most right-wing it has been in the last forty years, although it has never been anywhere better for the Socialists than 50-50.
Meurthe et Moselle has the clunkiest name of any French department and is the only one in Lorraine to lean to the left, even if it is slight (S+2). It has remained slightly but consistently left-of-center for at least four decades. Interestingly, this is not due to its main city, the college town of Nancy, which gained an S+ PVI for the very first time in 2012 as the right has continued to move in a populist direction. Meurthe et Moselle’s second city, Vandoeuvre, is the left-wing one (S+7 at present), while its rural areas have stayed close to 50-50, often a bit left of center.
In Lorraine’s northeast, Moselle is R+4 after a period of being just about 50-50. The main town of Metz is in fact 50-50, with rural areas leaning to the right a bit. This area borders the German Saarland, known as a coal area historically, so there may be a mining heritage on this side of the border too, although I’m not certain about that.
Finally, there is Vosges in the region’s southern end, which is R+2, but contains the left-leaning town of Epinal.
Alsace (2.8% of France’s population) has no American equivalent today, as it is an extremely conservative and very wealthy area, while also having a strong Catholic heritage. The best political comparison is probably Bavaria, although it is much smaller in population. This region consists of two departments.
In the south is Haut-Rhin and in the north is Bas-Rhin. As they are both R+14, I will analyze them together. No area in Alsace can really be considered left-wing, but some are purple. On the “far left” is the well-educated city of Strasbourg, currently S+2 and with a leftward trend. The Strasbourg suburb of Schiltigheim is S+1, and Mulhouse is 50-50. The rest of Alsace ranges from R+8 (Colmar) to R+19! (rural areas). For reference to the US, rural Alsace is as far right within the French political context as Idaho is in the US. Unlike Champagne and Lorraine, Alsace does not show an above-average Front National vote, although it’s not low either.
Franche-Comte (1.8% of France’s population) is one of France’s least populous regions, bordering Switzerland on its west side. It consists of three departments and an independent city, Belfort.
Belfort is R+1 and, interestingly, has a Socialist heritage, unusual for this part of France, as it was S+4 up until 2007.
Haute-Saone in the north and Jura in the southwest are both extremely rural. Both used to be 50-50 and have inched rightward, sitting at R+2.
Doubs contains the large town of Besancon (S+7), the smaller town of Montbeliard (50-50), and it as a whole is R+3, meaning its rural areas are pretty conservative.
Bourgogne (Burgundy in English, 2.5% of France’s population) is known for wines and castles.
Yonne, in the northwest, is R+5, having similar moderately right-wing leanings as in much of this part of France.
Nievre, on the other hand, is just south of Yonne but politically totally different. While it has lost some left-wing support from its past Socalist heyday, it’s still S+7; only one other department in eastern France (Aude) comes close to this level of Socialist support. For whatever reason, all the red wine must lead to Socialism.
Cote d’Or, containing Dijon, is more normal for this area, at R+3. Dijon itself is S+1.
Finally, there is Saone et Loire, south of Dijon and for whatever reason not highlighted on the map. This department is 50-50, with perhaps the slightest tilt to the Socialists. Both major towns are more left-leaning, with rural areas tilting right. Chalon is S+4 and Macon is S+5.
EDIT: I realize I skipped Picardie...Picardie makes up 2.9% of France's population. It stretches from France's coal mining areas to the outskirts of the Paris metro area.
Oise, in southern Picardie, could be considered in some respects to be exurban Paris, at least in its southern end. Beauvais, its largest town, has been consistently light red in recent elections, while Compiegne is R+5 with a Socialist trend and Creil is now up to S+16. I assume this is due to immigration; immigrants tend to vote pretty heavily for the left. Oise as a whole, however, is R+4 with a strong National Front, a testament to its conservative rural areas. Oise has trended rightward, like neighboring areas in Nord.
Somme, in the north of Picardie, is S+3. The town of Amiens is S+8, while smaller Abbeville is S+6. Here, even the rural areas are left-leaning.
Finally, there is Aisne. Like Oise (but unlike Somme) it has a rightward trend; it was S+7 as recently as 1995 and is now 50-50. This is one of the largest trends in the country and again mirrors neighboring areas in Nord and Champagne. This trend has mostly occurred in rural areas; the three largest towns have only inched rightward.