I decided to look at the 538 rankings and see how the PVIs of states will change compared to 2008 if everything remains the same. This means they are not my predictions.
I'm excluding Alaska, Arizona, and Massachusetts for obvious reasons, the different members of the Republican ticket as opposed to 2008.
(I'm not expecting a big Ryan VP bounce since he's not a statewide official, although I think Wisconsin will remain a Tossup and Ryan's presence surely won't hurt)
Here is the map on FiveThirtyEight. I certainly don't agree 100% with it.
Here are my observations, feel free to add more in the comments.
1) Nate seems to underestimate how disliked Obama is among Southern and Appalachian Whites. I think it's very unlikely that WV, KY, TN, AR, LA, or OK would shift leftward this cycle, although I suppose there might be a few old conservaDems who are more comfortable with the idea of a Black president than they were four years ago, or a few who just really liked McCain.
2) Wisconsin and Minnesota are a stark contrast. Despite being Upper Midwestern, traditionally progressive, and heavily White, they're moving opposite directions.
3) Romney's doing well in Nevada. Despite huge minority growth in the past four years (the most of any state), it has one of the biggest swings among competitive states.
4) The two Mormon-dominated states will be even redder this cycle. This is surprising to exactly nobody. Utah is expected to have the biggest swing of any state (R+5.5)
5) Connecticut, the wealthiest state, is getting redder. This doesn't surprise me either; Romney's a wealthy Northeasterner who doesn't emphasize social issues, unlike Bush or Palin, and Obama's running a more populist campaign this time around. Governor Malloy's tax hikes probably aren't helping either.
6) Vermont finally seems tapped out. I don't think it can get any bluer.
7) Nebraska and Kansas, despite being as red as always in 2008, are a bit redder this cycle. I have no idea why.
8) The two swingy states McCain abandoned are snapping back. Michigan, where he pulled out, also is probably helped by Romney being born there. Indiana, where he (smartly in my opinion) never invested resources, figuring it would never be a "tipping point" state, is snapping back too.
Color scheme:
Purple: within 1 point of PVI from last time
Blue or Red: 1.5, 2, 2.5, or >2.5 points more than the time before. For example, SC is expected to be 1.5 points bluer, and Michigan 2.5 points redder.
Swing(y) states:
The same: NH, VA, PA
Slightly redder: IA, CO
Redder: NV, MI, WI
Slightly bluer: FL, NC
Bluer: OH