With a possible mini-wave building, here are my predictions for the House. I'm only calling races Safe, Lean, Tilt, or Tossup. Likely has no use this close to Election Day.
Parentheses are my ratings from April.
Safe Dem Takeover:
Joe Walsh, IL-8: This guy will lose. You can count on it. Let's welcome Tammy Duckworth to the House, and then the Senate in 2017.
Safe GOP Takeover:
Brad Miller's Seat, NC-13: Yeah, it's not really his seat anymore due to redistricting. Either way, it's Safe GOP.
Mike Ross's Seat, AR-4: Asshole.
Larry Kissell, NC-8: One of the most weaselly House Dems. Still sad to see a Democrat be such a sure loss. At least he didn't retire. Cough, cough...Shuler. (Lean Republican)
From Lean Democrat to Off the Board:
These are the ones we shouldn't worry about.
Gary Miller, CA-31: Well this is actually Lean Democrat to Safe Republican. So depressing. We'll get it in 2014.
Ron Barber, AZ-2: Special election win should make this one an easy hold.
Denny Heck, WA-10: No need to worry about him.
Tim Holden's Seat, PA-17: Not sure why I ever had this at only Lean Dem.
Roscoe Bartlett, MD-6: Bartlett is doomed.
Carolyn McCarthy, NY-4: My worries were unfounded.
Mike Michaud, ME-2: He's incredibly strong.
From Lean Republican to Off the Board:
Mark Amodei, NV-2: We're running a Some Dude.
Jaime Herrera Beutler, WA-3: I don't think filing had closed when I rated this Lean R.
John Kline, MN-2: He's too entrenched.
Paul Ryan, WI-1: Yeaaaaah.
Steve Southerland, FL-2: We screwed up in the primary here.
Scott DesJarlais, TN-4: Haven't heard anything from Eric Stewart all cycle.
Scott Garrett, NJ-5: We recruited miserably here too.
Lean Democrat:
Bill Owens, North Country NY: He should be fine.
Ann Buerkle, Syracuse: She won't be fine. Welcome back to Dan Maffei.
Jerry McNerney, CA-9: Did decently in the primary. Shouldn't worry too much.
NV-4: Tarkanian's a terrible candidate, and SUSA sucks at House races.
AZ-1: Kirkpatrick can join Maffei and a couple others as comebackers.
Bob Dold, IL-10: He's doing everything right, but it won't be enough.
IL-12: Enyart's a good get, and Plummer's an idiot.
FL-9: Alan Grayson sucks. Majorly. But he's our guy now.
Ben Chandler, KY-6: He'll never be Safe, but I'm not worrying.
Tim Bishop, NY-1: Same as Chandler.
David Cicciline, RI-1: Dominant primary win makes me think he'll win this by a decent amount.
Dave Loebsack, IA-2: Decent amount of spending here, for some reason. (Safe D)
Lois Capps, Santa Barbara/SLO Counties, CA: For caution's sake. (Safe D)
WA-1: Susan DelBene's a great candidate here. Glad she beat Darcy. (Tilt D)
Mike McIntyre, NC-7: With the polling that's come out, I'm moving this to Lean D. (Tilt D)
Lean Republican:
OK-2: Fuck you, Dan Boren. For real. But it's looking better than I thought.
NC-11: I feel like we have a better shot against Meadows than people think. (Safe R)
Kathy Hochul, NY-26: Collins isn't great, but he has money and the district's lean.
CA-21: I had this at Safe R, but somehow John Hernandez is running ads. So Lean R it is.
Scott Tipton, CO-3: Not sure how Sal Pace is supposed to beat an incumbent in a district Romney should win that isn't really ancestrally Dem.
Open Montana/North Dakota/Kristi Noem: All three of these at large seats are Lean Republican.
Lee Terry, NE-2: Obama isn't competing as hard here. It's too bad.
Michele Bachmann, MN-6: Good luck to Jim Graves.
Reid Ribble, WI-8: I still love his name.
Larry Bucshon, IN-8: We'll see. This one could break late.
Jim Renacci vs. Betty Sutton, OH-16: She's too liberal.
Bill Johnson, OH-6: Haven't heard anything from this race.
Scott Rigell, VA-2: Virginia is so uncompetitive.
Vicki Hartzler, MO-4: Below the radar, but probably for good reason.
Chris Gibson, NY-19: He's an old style NY moderate, unlike Hayworth who I expected to be the moderate one.
Rick Crawford, AR-1: This would be a nice one to win.
Justin Amash, MI-3: I don't think Pestka has done enough (from Tilt R)
Michael Grimm, NY-11: Ethics obviously aren't enough of a reason to make you lose in NYC (from Tilt R)
Mary Bono Mack, CA-36: Newly on the board after the DCCC invested money here. (Safe R)
Mike Fitzpatrick, PA-8: Not sure why I had this at Tilt D. (Tilt D)
Nick Lampson, TX-14: Very under the radar. Weber may be taking this for granted. (Safe R)
Vern Buchanan, FL-16: He somehow got off. (Tilt R)
Now for the Key Races....
Tilting Dem:
Julia Brownley/Tony Strickland, CA-26: Erring on the side of caution. (Lean D)
John Taviglione/Mark Takano, CA-41: GOP has a strong machine in Riverside County. (Lean D)
Kyrsten Sinema/Vernon Parker, AZ-9: We're lucky GOP has a weak candidate. (Lean D)
Bobby Schilling, IL-17: Bustos seems to be struggling. (Lean D)
Judy Biggert, IL-11: Biggert's the strongest of the IL GOPers for good reason. She's been around a long time. (Lean D)
Mark Critz, PA-12: I'm very favorable on this race. But I'll keep it in Tilt Dem to be safe. (Lean D)
Elizabeth Esty/Andrew Roraback, CT-5: A two moderate race. Extremely rare. (Lean D)
Charlie Bass, NH-2: This should've stayed Tilt. (Lean D)
Frank Guinta, NH-1: Good polling has surprised me. (Lean R)
Brian Bilbray, CA-52: We got our guy. (Tilt R)
Chip Cravaack, MN-8: He can go to New Hampshire now.
Dan Benishek, MI-1: Very optimistic on this race.
John Barrow, GA-12: He's a fighter and a winner.
David Rivera, FL-27: Jail is looking more likely than re-election.
Allen West, FL-18: Ugh. He better lose.
Tilting Republican:
Steve King, IA-4: The lean of the district will let him pull this one out. (Lean R)
Tom Latham/Leonard Boswell, IA-3: Latham's as establishment as it gets. (Lean R)
Joe Donnelly's Seat, IN-2: Walorski's obviously worried, judging by her ads. But they may be helping he. (Lean R)
Tim Johnson's Seat, IL-13: Gill just seems too far left. If he wins, all progressives should know how to campaign in swing districts. (Lean R)
Nan Hayworth, NY-18: Carpetbagging never looks good.
Sean Duffy, WI-7: Kreitlow is underwhelming. (Tilt D)
John Tierney, MA-6: I think he loses even in a mini wave. Brown will romp here, Romney won't do terribly, and while he may or may not have known about the scandal, his wife clearly did.
Pure Tossups:
Jeff Denham, CA-10: Jose Hernandez is excellent. (Lean R)
Dan Lungren, CA-7: Been volunteering here. (Tilt Dem)
Jim Matheson, UT-4: Romney's strength here may doom him. (Tilt Dem)
Quico Canseco, TX-23: Gallego's excellent. (Tilt GOP)
Mike Coffman, CO-6: He hasn't been helping his re election efforts this year. (Tilt GOP)
Open Detroit Area Seat, MI-11: McCotter fiasco has been really entertaining. (Safe GOP)
Jon Runyan, NJ-3: Under the radar. (Lean R)
Joe Heck, NV-3: It'll be very very close. (Tilt D)
This puts us at 229-198 with 8 Tossups. 233-202 would be the most likely, which is +10 for us, I think.