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Ohio Redistricting: Boehner's Dilemma

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I decided to try drawing Ohio.  I stuck to COI as best as I could, but made some tweaks based on competitiveness.  I'll explain as I go along.
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1st: Steve Chabot (R) vs. Fmr. Rep. Steve Dreihaus (D)
PVI: D+1.5
Rating: Tilt D
Cities: Cincinnati, most suburbs

From a COI standpoint, I think the western edge of Hamilton County is the least suburban and therefore the best to remove, but it just looks too ugly for a commission to approve, so I settled for this.  Chabot and Dreihaus would face each other for the third time, and I'd give the slight edge to Dreihaus, who did better than expected in his 2010 loss.

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2nd: John Boehner (R) or Brad Wenstrup (R)
PVI: R+18
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Hamilton, Middletown, Outer Cincinnati Suburbs
Boehner's seat, which combines suburbs with rural ares, is split along COI lines, and this becomes the second of two seats that are purely Cincinnati focused.  Wenstrup would run here if Boehner didn't; both live in the the district.

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3rd: Mike Turner (R)
PVI: R+4
Rating: Likely R
Cities: Dayton, Dayton Suburbs, Xenia
The easiest seat to draw on the map.  The Dayton area is basically two counties big, and they almost exactly make a congressional district.
With the decline of urban Dayton, this should get even redder as the decade goes on.

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OH-4: Brad Wenstrup (R) or Steve Austria (R) or Both
PVI: R+12
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Springfield, Portsmouth, Rural Territory
This mostly rural district continues the elaborate game of musical chairs.  Wenstrup will run here if Boehner runs in the suburban 2nd rather than the rural 8th.  If the seat is open, former Rep. Steve Austria, who bowed to the establishment and retired this cycle, may get back in the game; he's still young.  Combining Springfield with all this rural territory was a necessity; this is one of two leftover rural districts, with Gibbs getting the other, that aren't perfect COIs but aren't terrible either.

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5th: Bob Latta (R) vs. ? (D)
PVI: R+1
Rating: Tilt R
Cities: Lorain, Elyria, Mansfield, Sandusky, Findlay
This Northern Ohio swing district is the type of competitive district both parties hate.  Latta is the incumbent, but he doesn't seem all that popular and he's a backbencher in the House.
Big North South divide here in terms of voting; closer to the lake is more liberal.

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6th: Bill Johnson (R) vs. ? (D)
PVI: R+5, but much more Dem downballot
Rating: Tilt R
Cities: Athens, Zanesville, New Philadelphia
A rural, Appalachian swing district, this is as competitive as you can draw without gerrymandering in SE Ohio.  Johnson will have tough fights to get re-election here.

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7th: Bob Gibbs (R)
PVI: R+12
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Newark, Lancaster, Wooster
Mostly rural, this district is safe for Gibbs.  I really don't know what else to say about it.

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8th: John Boehner (R) or Jim Jordan (R)
PVI: R+18
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Lima, Troy
Rural, home of Gleem.  Jordan and Boehner have a strong dislike of each other; I think Jordan would run even if Boehner chose to run here.  I think Jordan would end up running uncontested in the primary, however, with Boehner running in his home district.

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9th: Marcy Kaptur (D)
PVI: D+5
Rating: Safe D
Cities: Toledo, Bowling Green, Defiance
There's really only one way to draw this district.  Closer to 2020, it will probably be competitive, since Kaptur likely won't stay on all decade.  For now it's Safe for her.

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10th: Dennis Kucinich? (D)
PVI: D+3
Rating: Tilt R with Kucinich, Tilt D otherwise
Cities: Cleveland and Suburbs
Democrats' worst nightmares are realized; Kucinich has a seat he can be competitive in containing his of West Cleveland.  Democrats should hold the district with anyone else.

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11th: Marcia Fudge (D)
PVI: Something Crazy (D+24, actually)
Rating: Safe D
Cities: Cleveland and Suburbs
50.3% White, which can be fixed by swapping a few precincts with the 10th if necessary.  The Democratic primary should be heavily Black (at least 1/3 of the Whites are Republican here, and probably more).  The ridiculous and unneccessary snake shaped district going to Akron is eliminated; no commission in their right mind will keep it.

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12th: Pat Tiberi (R) and Steve Stivers (R)
PVI: R+5
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Columbus Suburbs, Delaware
A fun primary which would, in my estimation, lead to a Tiberi victory would be followed by an easy general election.  If Franklin County continues to get more liberal, this, like Kaptur's district, is one to watch by mid to late decade.  I tried to keep as much of Columbus as possible in one district, but a few weird arms of the city ended up here.

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13th: Jim Renacci (R) vs. Betty Sutton (D)
PVI: D+2
Rating: Tilt D
Cities: Akron and Suburbs, Medina
While I expect Renacci to prevail in November, Sutton would win under the new lines.  Summit County is reunited, and along with Medina it makes a swingy and almost complete CD.

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14th: David Joyce (R)
PVI: EVEN
Rating: Pure Tossup
Cities: Mentor, Warren, Ashtabula
Another district in a corner, this combines some Akron and Cleveland metro area with more manufacturing based areas.  It looks nice and is extremely swingy, so the commission will love it.

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15th: Joyce Beatty (D)
PVI: D+12
Rating: Safe D
Cities: Columbus and some Suburbs
Safe for any Democrat.

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16th: Tim Ryan (D) or OPEN
PVI: D+2
Rating: Likely D or Tilt D
Cities: Youngstown, Canton, Alliance
3 counties fit perfectly here and also make this competitive when Open.  Ancestrally D means Generic D would still win by about six or eight in an Open Seat.

So...that leads to:
R: 6
D: 3
Tilt/Lean R: 2
Tilt/Lean D: 4
Tossup: 1

In a 50 50 year, that's 8R, 7D, 1T.  Looks fair.


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