With primary season nearly over, I'm doing an update to my Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings (with my two old rankings' diaries' ratings in parentheses).
Safe = 16 point lead or greater
Likely = 12 point lead or greater
Lean = 8 point lead or greater
Tilt = 4 point lead or greater
Governor:
Missouri: Lean D. Nixon 55, Spence 45
Putting this on the board; Nixon's leads seem to be decreasing. Still not worried, though.
West Virginia: Likely D (Lean D, Lean D). Tomblin 57, Maloney 43 (I'm only going to guess at two party vote)
Doesn't look like anything big will happen here before November. So I'm finally moving this to Likely. West Virginia still loves their conservaDems.
Montana: Tossup (Tossup, Tossup). Hill 51, Bullock 49
If I had to guess, Bullock narrowly loses based on Romney coat-tails and Montana's redness, but he definitely has a 50 50 shot at this election.
New Hampshire: Tossup (Tossup, Tossup). Cilley 51, Lamontagne 49. Hassan 52, Lamontagne 48.
I think Hassan is slightly more electable and moderate. But both should narrowly prevail over Tea Partier Lamontagne. At least I hope.
Washington: Tossup (Lean R, Lean R). Inslee 52, McKenna 48.
Inslee's campaign is finally getting off the ground, and with it he's starting to have narrow leads. McKenna's about as good of a fit as a Republican can be in this state, but he's still a Republican. And Washington doesn't like Republicans. Milquetoast Dem should be good enough in November.
North Carolina: Lean R (Lean R, Lean R). McCrory 54, Dalton 46.
It won't be an embarrassing loss for LG Dalton, but a loss it will be.
Indiana: Lean R (Lean R, Likely R). Pence 55, Gregg 45.
Gregg's first ad is far too folksy for my tastes, but hopefully Indianans (update: Hoosiers! Apologies to all Hoosiers who read this) like it. Pence is running a generic campaign; Gregg's job is to show how right wing he is. Doesn't look like OfA will be in the state, which will hurt Gregg as well.
Delaware, Vermont, North Dakota are all Safe at this point.
Senate:
Maine: Safe I (Likely I, Lean I) King 57, Summers 34, Dill 9
I think this one's officially off the board. Angus King, who I thoroughly enjoy because he is such an old school politician that just says what he thinks (same with Christie, to some extent), should coast here.
Connecticut: Likely D (Lean D, Lean D) Murphy 56, McMahon 44
Murphy winning the primary tonight (well, not for sure, but still) gives me enough confidence to move this over to Likely.
Florida: Tilt D (Lean D, Tossup) Nelson 53, Mack 47
All these close polls are starting to worry me. Nelson's sitting on a mountain of cash and Mack is even harder to like than Romney. But I'm still feeling this is much closer than it should be.
Hawaii: Lean D (Lean D, Lean D) Hirono 55, Lingle 45
I don't think this one has a chance of getting to Tossup. But Lingle will keep it relatively close.
New Mexico: Tilt D (Lean D, Tossup) Heinrich 53, Wilson 47
Like Florida, this is closer than I thought it would be. Glad all the environmental groups are going after Wilson. As long as Obama wins this state by six or more, which seems pretty likely, Heinrich should be fine.
Massachusetts: Tossup (Tilt D, Tossup) Warren 51, Brown 49
Warren really isn't impressing me. But Massachusetts is still too blue for Brown to hang on. Wouldn't be shocked if he were Massachusetts' new Governor come 2015, though.
Virginia: Tossup (Tilt D, Tossup) Kaine 50, Allen 50
This one really worries me. Allen's running more mainstream and he's led in quite a few polls, even as Obama should win the state.
Wisconsin: Tossup (Tossup, Tossup) Thompson 52, Baldwin 48; Baldwin 52, Neumann 48; Hovde 50, Baldwin 50
We really should've nominated Ron Kind. Primary tonight, which should clear this muddle up quite a bit. The fact that Hovde could beat Baldwin scares me.
Montana: Tossup (Tossup, Tossup) Tester 51, Rehberg 49
Republican strategists are upset at how hard it is to take down Tester, and he's just run a great campaign. Rehberg running against the Ryan Plan is interesting.
Nevada: Tilt R (Tilt R, Tossup) Heller 52, Berkley 48
However much certain Nevada DK posters disagree with me, I don't think Berkley's gonna win. Heller's managing to compile a moderate voting record since becoming a Senator despite his far-right record in the House. He's really a hack.
Missouri: Tilt R (Tilt R, Tossup) Akin 53, McCaskill 47
No matter how wacko Akin may be, I don't see how an unpopular Democrat in a light red state pulls this off.
North Dakota: Tilt R (Lean R, Lean R) Berg 53, Heitkamp 47
Heitkamp is doing everything right. But "right" also describes the politics of her state. I really hope she pulls it off. She's really easy to like and root for.
Arizona: Lean R (Lean R, Lean R) Flake 55, Carmona 45
Some on this site are really optimistic on Carmona. I'm not. He'll do alright, though.
Indiana: Tilt R (Lean R, Likely R) Mourdock 52, Donnelly 48
Similar to North Dakota.
Nebraska: Likely R (Likely R, Likely R) Fischer 57, Kerrey 43
On the bright side, Fischer will be decent for a Republican.
Washington: Likely D Cantwell 57, Baumgartner 43
Nothing to worry about, but I think it at least merits being put on the board.
Ohio: Lean D Brown 56, Mandel 44
Hopefully the little punk will lose big. I really detest him.
Michigan: Likely D Stabenow 57, Hoekstra 43
Nearly forgot about this one.
This would lead to:
Dem losses: ND, NE, WI, MO
Dem gains: MA, ME
Which means a 51-49 Dem Senate. Which we'd likely lose in 2014 :/