I feel like I've finally perfected my Virginia gerrymander, completed in the waning hours of 2011 (BEFORE I left for a party, I do have a life thank you very much)
Here we go. First, the GOP vote sinks.
VA-6: Bob Goodlatte (R)
Virginia PVI (avg. of 2008-only PVI and statewide avg.): R+13
This district takes in nearly the whole West Virginia border as well as the entire Kentucky one and most of the Tennessee one. It's Appalachia, but the northern half is ancestrally Republican Appalachia, so even a Rick Boucher comeback here wouldn't stand much of a chance. Harrisonburg, Waynesboro, and Staunton are the major towns here. Bob Goodlatte is and will remain the incumbent, despite gaining nearly a dozen new rural counties and losing his hometown.
VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R)
PVI: R+13
Most of Danville and some of Lynchburg is here, and the other 90% of this district is rural, with most of it Republican up and down the ballot. Griffith should have no trouble here at all, unless Robert Hurt decides to run here.
VA-7: Eric Cantor (R)
PVI: R+14
This one should be fun. A monstrous vote sink that includes the most Republican parts of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach, uses water contiguity to take in a few Republican rural counties, and then gets the ruby red Richmond suburbs. Cantor represents a very small percentage of this district, so someone else might give it a go, either a State Senator/Delegate or maybe Randy Forbes, who has been utterly screwed out of a district. Democrats, of course, have no shot.
The Tossups:
VA-2: Scott Rigell (R) vs. ? (D)
PVI: D+2
This territory is tough sledding for freshman Rigell, but he's also pretty establishment-y, so he wouldn't be a terrible fit for the district if he won. Democrats, however, could certainly find someone (hopefully not Glenn Nye) to make this district a Toss-Up or possibly even Tilt Dem. I tried to suck up all the White Democrats in the Tidewater area, take in some minority areas in Newport News and Hampton not needed in the VRA district, and stretch all the way to the college town/tourist destination of Williamsburg. Obama should win this even if he narrowly loses in 2012.
VA-5: Robert Hurt (R) vs. Fmr Rep. Tom Perriello (D)
PVI: D+2
The Perriello comeback district, this is my favorite on the map, not just because I like Perriello. I started with a core of swingy counties: Nottoway, Prince Edward, Buckingham, Cumberland, Nelson, Fluvanna, and Louisa, added a couple redder counties to make the district look nicer and then added arms. One goes into Black areas near the North Carolina border, one goes to Fredericksburg (an iteration I haven't seen before), and one goes through Lynchburg and Roanoake to Radford and Blacksburg. With Charlottesville as the base, this district is a combination of Blacks, Blue Dogs, and college liberals, and Perriello should hold them together pretty well in a primary.
Lean Dem (if not now, by 2016, with the way NoVa is going)
VA-4: OPEN
PVI: D+1
This would be the toughest seat for Dems, as there is no incumbent and it's basically a Pure Tossup, but within four years it should be about D+3. It's only 65% White. Looks a lot like the original Gerrymander as well.
VA-8: Jim Moran (D)
PVI: D+3
Moran could certainly lose this; he's not exactly likeable and isn't perfectly clean either. Only 61% White, so it'll definitely get bluer. If Moran loses this, it'll probably be won back by a Dem in a cycle or two anyway; D+3s are very tough for Republicans to hold.
VA-10: Frank Wolf (R) vs. some Democrat
PVI: D+4
D+4 is bordering on unelectable for Republicans, but Wolf is one of the five or so strongest Republicans in Congress, so I'm keeping it at Tossup.
VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D)
PVI: D+2
Connolly held a similar PVI district in 2010, so I'd call this one Lean Dem. Heads into some very rural areas, but at only 56% White, this one should trend left the fastest.
Likely Dem:
VA-1: OPEN (D)
PVI: D+4
Richmond area and pretty safe for Democrats. Any idea who could run?
The VRA District:
VA-3: Bobby Scott (D)
PVI: D+11
Unlike, say, Lacy Clay, Bobby Scott is a team player, and easily one of my five favorite Black congressmembers. Barely qualifies as a VRA district, but is certainly Safe Dem.
Of course, this map does leave the possibility of a 10-1 GOP delegation, but I really can't see it with NoVa's trend, even if the 5th may have a slight Republican trend outside of Charlottesville.