Quantcast
Channel: jncca
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 55

Upstate New York: COI Map

$
0
0

The goal here was simple: avoid studying for my sociology final.

Beyond that, the goal was:
Buffalo seat
Rochester seat
Syracuse seat
2 Western New York non Buffalo seats
North Country seat
Albany seat
Draw the rest as they fit

Photobucket

It's exceptionally clean.

Brian Higgins (D)
Photobucket

While Erie County has been getting redder over my lifetime, I can't say the same for the city of Buffalo and its inner suburbs, which is what this district is.  The amazingly names suburbs of Lackawanna, Cheektowaga, and Tonawanda are all here, as is the more boring Amherst, along with Hamburg.  D+10, the safest district in all of oopstate (Book of Mormon reference).

Kathy Hochul (D), but would lose in 2012
Photobucket

This district won't re-elect Hochul; not with presidential turnout and no Crazy Jack Davis or Jane Corwin.  It's the upper half of Western New York minus Monroe County, and is a Likely R R+6 district with even more ancestral R leanings.  Niagara Falls, Batavia, and Seneca Falls are the "cities" here.

Louise Slaughter (D)
Photobucket

Slaughter, on the other hand, is perfectly safe in this D+6, as is any successor.  Monroe County is slightly too big for a district, and this was the cleanest way to draw it.

Tom Reed (R)
Photobucket

Extremely ancestrally R, still very Republican, this R+8 seat was somehow mostly represented by Eric Massa for a little bit.  Jamestown and Elmira count as population centers here, but it's a rural district with some Buffalo suburbs attached.

Ann Buerkle (R) vs. Dan Maffei (D)
Photobucket

Maffei gets his seat back, in an even safer itineration.  Blue Onondaga County, pink Oswego, some of pinkish red Madison, and purple Cayuga are all here.  It's D+4, so Buerkle should lose.

Richard Hanna (R)
Photobucket

This is my favorite district on the map.  The original goal was to combine manufacturing in Binghamton and Rome/Utica, and Cortland and Ithaca got attached in the end.  It's an EVEN district, is something I've never seen drawn before, and isn't all that ugly.

Bill Owens (D)
Photobucket

New York's equivalent of Minnesota's Great White North: very white, very cold, and trending the opposite way of how it's been for the last 80 years.  This EVEN district is getting bluer, especially near the Vermont border.  Watertown and Saratoga Springs are the key towns here.

Paul Tonko (D)
Photobucket

Tonko gets a nice D+6 district centered around Albany, Troy, and Schenectady.  I think these were all manufacturing heavy at one point, and in fact the Albany area is one of the most unionized places in the country (private sector, so it's higher if you include gov't workers).

Chris Gibson (R) vs. Maurice Hinchey (D)
Photobucket

Hinchey and Gibson get to face off here, and I'm not sure who has the edge in this D+1.  Hinchey is old, has health problems, and is very liberal, struggling in 2010, but Gibson is a freshman.  Dutchess and Ulster Counties hold much of the population.

OPEN (maybe Nan Hayworth?)
Photobucket

Sullivan, Rockland, and nearly all of Orange: this district is just begging to be drawn.  It's R+1.5, but very suburban/exurban, so I'd say it would Lean R if open or if Hayworth moves here.

Nita Lowey (D) vs. maybe Nan Hayworth (R)
Photobucket

If Hayworth really wants to try to win a D+5 against a popular incumbent, she can be my guest, but I just can't see it happening.  A very suburban district here.

So my map is 4D 2R 5S, which seems fair for upstate New York, although I'd give Hanna the edge against anyone and I'd expect a Republican to win the Rockland based district as well.


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 55

Trending Articles



<script src="https://jsc.adskeeper.com/r/s/rssing.com.1596347.js" async> </script>