So it's time for my House projections. SaoMagnifico already did one, but I'd like to do one anyway.
First, from reapportionment, the Republicans gained 2 seats, if I calculated correctly. That's assuming a Latham victory in Iowa, which I am.
I'm going to use incumbents, not numbers, since I haven't learned all the new numbering schemes yet and you probably haven't either. Cook ratings in parentheses.
First, Likely or Safe Pickups.
For the Democrats:
Joe Walsh (Likely Dem): Tammy Duckworth is a very strong candidate, although I was rooting for Raja Krishnamoorthi here. She should easily win this, and might even approach 60%. Walsh has incredible baggage and is far too conservative for this district.
For the Republicans:
Dan Boren's Seat (Lean GOP): Like many Blue Dog Southern seats, Boren was the last Dem who could feasibly hold this seat, even if he wasn't much of a Democrat.
Mike Ross's Seat (Likely R): See above. Except a couple Dems might've been able to be competitive here. But they didn't enter.
Heath Shuler's Seat (Likely R): His former CoS is putting up a good effort, but it's not gonna be enough.
Brad Miller's Seat (Likely R): Redistricting forced his retirement, and it's Likely/Safe GOP now.
Kathy Hochul (Lean R): I honestly see no path to victory. Democrats hold no ancestrally Republican seats that are >R+5. Worse, they didn't even hold them pre-2010. It's a goner, as sad as it is after her awesome special election victory.
Leaning Democratic:
Jerry McNerney (Lean D): Ricky Gill is raising a lot of money, but this seat is too blue for an incumbent Democrat to lose.
Elton Gallegly's Seat (Tossup): I'm assuming that Parks caucuses with the Dems. If she doesn't, then this is a Tossup.
Gary Miller (Tossup): There's no way this is a Tossup. Pete Aguilar is a strong candidate, Gary Miller isn't, and it's like a D+3 seat or so by 2008 numbers.
Open New Riverside County Seat (Lean D): Mark Takano gets a seat in Congress, 20 years later. When's the last time someone ran 20 years apart and won the second time ? Trivia buffs, let me know. Taviglione's a good GOP get, though.
Open New Nevada Seat (Lean D): D+2 or better in bluening Nevada, and Horsford is a strong recruit. Add one more for the Dems here.
Open Northern Arizona Seat (Tossup): Ann Kirkpatrick didn't lose badly in 2010, and she should take it here. Tossup or Tilt R if Baldanegro wins this, though.
Open Giffords Seat (Tossup): Giffords sympathy vote should extend to Ron Barber, which means he should take this, although I'd be worried if Jesse Kelly lost the primary.
Open New Phoenix Area Seat (Tossup): Cook's too down on Democrats in Arizona in general, in my opinion. Republicans really don't have a very good candidate here. Still waiting for Sinema to apologize for voting for Nader, I guess she could make this lose-able as a liberal caricature, but I don't see a Republican waiting to capitalize.
Open New Washington Seat (Likely D): Maybe I'm just being cautious here, I'm not sure. But welcome to Congress, Denny Heck.
Bob Dold (Lean D): This seat's too blue for him, even though he doesn't have a Tea Party voting record. I wish Schneider weren't guaranteed a lifetime seat, though. Israel is no excuse to donate to a Republican.
Bobby Schilling (Lean D): Blue collar, union Dems aren't gonna keep Schilling around. Bustos seems a lot better than Schneider or Hare.
Judy Biggert (Tossup): I'm not buying Tossup. Foster's the best Dem running as a challenger in the state, and the seat is quite blue.
Jerry Costello's Seat (Tossup): Plummer is an abysmal candidate, so I'm much more optimistic about this, even though Brad Harriman is unproven.
Mark Critz or Jason Altmire (Lean D): I might be too optimistic here, but I think either of them can hold on against a "meh" Republican candidate.
Tim Holden's Seat (Safe D): I'm expecting Holden to lose the primary, but the vastly preferable Matt Cartwright should hold it for us pretty easily anyway.
Open New Orlando District (Tossup): If Grayson wins the primary, it goes to Tossup, but I'm still praying someone else jumps in and beats him. Otherwise I'll have to support a Republican, and I really don't want to do that.
Ben Chandler (Lean D): One of the few Dem seats that could fall in 2012. But I doubt it will. Redistricting was helpful here.
Roscoe Bartlett (Lean D): John Delaney (ugh) should pick this up for us.
Tim Bishop (Lean D): Another seat that will be very problematic when open, but should be okay this year.
Carolyn McCarthy (Likely D): She has an actual opponent, it's not that blue, but she should do fine as well.
Bill Owens (Lean D): Doheny's had a bad month, and Owens barely survived 2010. Similar to Bishop, should be like an eight point win.
Ann Buerkle (Lean D): Thankfully, she's doomed, and we can welcome Dan Maffei back.
Chris Murphy's Seat (Likely D): Roraback would make it Lean D, otherwise I guess Likely is fine as well.
John Tierney (Likely D): I'm moderately worried here, since Tisei is gay, socially liberal, and Tierney's wife has issues (which is fair game, since unlike a child, he chose to marry her).
Charlie Bass (Tossup): I'm doing the rare move the incumbent in a similar seat into Lean already thing because Bass was sooo close to losing last cycle, and it's a rematch.
Mike Michaud (Likely D): Kevin Raye is very strong and nearly won in 2002. But Michaud is entrenched and a strong fit.
David Ciccilline (Lean D): Hopefully he loses the primary.
Leaning Republican:
From now on, I will only put Cook's rating in if it differs from mine. Anyways, here we go. In a Dem wave, we could win many of these, and we'll need a few to take back the House.
Open Central Valley Seat: I know many (Sao) are high on Blong Xiong, but I don't see it. He's got a very weak profile for the district: he's not from a city in the district, for one, and he's also Asian in a heavily Hispanic and Portugese district while his opponent, David Valadao, is Portugese. He does speak Spanish, which is a plus, but I don't see a path to victory. Major recruiting failure.
Jeff Denham: Jose Hernandez is a decent B list recruit, and Denham's not so great himself (remember that fundraiser that netted under $100?) He's widely seen as kind of a schmuck. But it's a light red seat, so he's got the advantage.
Mark Amodei (Safe R): I'm not sure who we're running here, but he's a half-termer and Obama should win or come close in this district. I think it's underrated, even though we won't win it.
Scott Tipton: Another schmuck. But this seat is R+4, which is a very tough climb even when open, but especially against an incumbent.
Jaime Herrera Beutler (Safe R): Our other West Coast recruiting fail against another member who doesn't seem all that smart. I'm still hoping someone better enters.
Open Montana Seat (Likely R): I know nothing about any candidate on either side, but Montana when open is generally a Lean R state. So I'm putting it here.
Lee Terry (Likely R): Terry was close to getting beaten in 2008, and we appear to have two strong candidates. He's not well liked on a personal level, so there's definitely an opening.
Michele Bachmann (Safe R): This seat will stay Lean R all decade as long as she's around, since it's not red enough for her to ever be safe, but it's too red for a Democrat to ever actually knock her off.
John Kline (Safe R): Minnesotans, am I too optimistic here?
Reid Ribble: Ribble's been a backbencher and his opponent seems decent, but I think Ribble's backbencherness will help him. He's no Joe Walsh.
Paul Ryan (Safe R): I think at this point, he's too polarizing to ever be safe in a swing district. But, like Bachmann, I doubt he'll ever lose.
Steve King: Strong opponent, purpler district. But it's still too red.
Tom Latham vs. Leonard Boswell (Tossup): I've been pessimistic about this one from the start. Boswell sucked in 2006; Latham's never drawn a serious challenger despite a swingy district because he's so non-controversial.
Open Northern Indiana Seat: Brendan Mullen has a chance, and he's got a good profile for the district, but I don't think he's a star, and we need a star to win this one. Likely victory in a Dem wave, though.
Larry Bucshon (Likely R): He can't fundraise, faces an insurrection on the right from Kristi Risk, and has a strong moderate opponent. We'll see.
Betty Sutton vs. Jim Renacci (Tossup): It's R+4 and she's a liberal. Enough said.
Bill Johnson: Another total backbencher.
Steve Southerland (Likely R): If Lawson wins the primary, it's probably Safe R.
Larry Kissell: His internal gave me a little bit of hope, but I see zero path to victory. Or even 47%.
Scott Rigell (Likely R): A decent opponent. Maybe I should've moved this to Likely.
Scott DesJarlais (Safe R): I would love to beat this doofus. Eric Stewart's the guy to do it. But in 2006, not 2012.
Vicki Hartzler (Safe R): Birtherism never helps, but R+ double digits sure does.
Scott Garrett (Likely R): Bachmann situation.
Jon Runyan: We haven't seen Adler campaign yet. If she's good on the stump, she's got a very good shot.
Chris Gibson (Tossup): One of the most moderate voting records among House Republicans should help him.
Frank Guinta (Likely R): Never count out someone who's won the district before.
Rick Crawford (Likely R): He's running scared, embracing a millionaire's tax. However, that also takes away a potential line of attack.
Open Central Illinois Seat: Tim Johnson's surprise retirement makes me really wish Gill hadn't won the primary.
Now on to the Tossups, which I've rated as either Tilt D or Tilt R.
Tilt R
Brian Bilbray: San Diego is very Republican down the ballot, and it's basically a tossup district. So that gives him a slight advantage.
Mike Coffman (Lean R): He's very popular in Colorado despite being hard right.
Quico Canseco: Gallego is a very good recruit. We'll see.
Justin Amash (Likely R): I do think a lot of Republicans will undervote, and plenty of Ford/Ehlers types will vote for the moderate Pestka.
Michael Grimm (Lean R): Ethics should doom him, but NYC is so unpredictable, and it's hard for a Murphy to run on ethics.
Nan Hayworth: Hayworth would easily go down in a Hurricane Irene-bad year for Republicans, but it'll be a fight this time around.
Tilt D
Dan Lungren: I really like Ami Bera, and this district is the fastest trending one in the state, in my opinion.
Jim Matheson: As polling showed, this one will be a nail-biter. Romney's coattails could doom Matheson, but Utah is already very used to ticket-splitting for him.
Joe Heck: Backbench conservative in a swing district.
Open WA seat (Lean D): Darcy makes it a tossup. Dennis would make it Lean R.
Chip Cravaack: Despite recruitment woes, I do think we pull this one out.
Sean Duffy (Lean R): He's a complete doofus, almost a parody, really. Our recruit is strong, but I've heard nothing recently about this race.
Dan Benishek: Tea Party in a poor, white, ancestrally D district is a recipe for success in the South. But this is Michigan against a top recruit.
Mike Fitzpatrick (Lean R): I think Bockvaar takes this in an upset.
John Barrow (Lean R): R+10 with a conservaDem incumbent against weak challengers is very do-able.
Vern Buchanan (Likely R): Ethics, ethics, ethics. Fitzgerald needs to attack him relentlessly. I think he can do it.
David Rivera (Lean R): See above.
Mike McIntyre: I think he holds on, especially against war criminal Pantano, who seems poised to score a primary upset.
Allen West: Speaking of war criminals...I would love to see this fucker's ass in jail.
So what do we have?
GOP wins all tossups: D+2
Dems win all tossups: D+21
Average: D+9
Not enough, but it's a start.