I've decided to finally write a ratings diary for President, Governor, Senate, and House (House will be in Part 2)
President:
Safe Democratic: 182 EV
Likely Democratic: New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota 213 EV
Lean Democratic: Wisconsin, Maine's 2nd district, Colorado, Nevada 239 EV
Tilt Democratic: Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsyvlania 300 EV
Pure Tossup: North Carolina, Florida, Nebraska's 2nd district
Tilt Republican: Arizona, Missouri
Lean or Likely Republican: Indiana, Montana, South Dakota, Georgia
As you can see, I'd right now project the election to be Tilt Obama, with an expected 300+ electoral votes.
Governor's Races (DKE Rating in Parentheses)
West Virginia: Lean D (Lean D)
I haven't seen Tomblin's approvals, but he won a year ago and the environment for Dems is better this year than it was last year.
Montana: Tossup (Tossup)
Bullock is a better candidate, but it's still a red state. This and the Senate race should both be nailbiters
New Hampshire: Tossup (Tossup)
Little polling here, but it's a classic swing state in a neutral year.
Wisconsin Recall: Tossup (Tossup)
I'm tempted to call it Tilt Walker, but I'll leave it at Tossup for now. Still philosophically opposed to recalls, but it is what it is. The 5% or so of voters who think like me (strongly oppose him, wouldn't recall him) could make the difference for Walker.
Washington: Lean R (Lean R)
Inslee's proving to be a pretty weak candidate, and Mr. Rainman (hitchhiker's guide reference) is acting all non-partisan (seriously, check out his website!) My dad's home state of Oregon should soon have the longest streak of Democratic governance.
North Carolina: Lean R (Lean R)
Perdue's retirement doesn't seem to help much; her unpopularity is rubbing off on other Dems and McCrory's pretty popular himself.
Indiana: Lean R (Likely R)
I'm a bit more optimistic here; Pence is far right and Gregg is a centrist. However, I do think Indiana is too red for Gregg to win, although it'd be nice if he proved me wrong.
Senate:
Maine: Likely I (Lean I)
Everyone's favorite independent should win this handily.
Connecticut: Lean D (Lean D)
I'm only worried about this if Byzsdldjkjfkdjfeorjdslkjdkiewicz wins the primary. Murphy should win by ten even against Shays, and possibly be closer to fifteen.
Florida: Lean D (Tossup)
Mack isn't a very good candidate, Nelson has a shit-ton of money, and Nelson's leading in every poll. I'm pretty confident about this one.
Hawaii: Lean D (Lean D)
I never want there to be another Jewish Republican Senator; it's a disgrace upon my people. This, surprisingly, is the state where it's most likely to happen, rather than Ohio. But I can't see Linda Lingle getting past 45% or so.
New Mexico: Lean D (Tossup)
New Mexico has finally made the transition from purple to blue state. Like in Hawaii, Wilson is a relatively popular female Republican with a more moderate reputation than record, and like Hawaii I can't see her getting past 45%, especially since she has the same base as Heinrich.
Massachusetts: Tilt D (Tossup)
Scott Brown is running a very good campaign, and he's a great politician. But Warren can fundraise like crazy, hasn't made any gaffes, and is in a state that should be at least D+8 this year, and possibly more depending if Romney gets a bounce.
Virginia: Tilt D (Tossup)
Tim Kaine leads in most of the polls, and that's good enough for me to call it Tilt D. Allen can go back to writing football metaphors or something.
Wisconsin: Tossup (Tossup)
Tammy Baldwin's raising good money, and the Republicans will have an expensive primary. But if Tommy Thompson emerges from it as the victor, he should make this a Tossup race.
Montana: Tossup (Tossup)
I really really really want Tester to pull it out, but right now I'd have to project a 51-49 loss, which is still a Tossup. Hopefully he can make up those last couple points.
Nevada: Tilt R (Tossup)
The last PPP poll didn't exactly make me optimistic about this race. Berkley shares a name with my college; Heller a name with my relatives. I'd predict a 51-49 loss for us here, too, but Nevada polling can be tricky. Hopefully, it's off this time too.
Missouri: Tilt R (Tossup)
I'm not sure McCaskill can win if she's polling in the mid-40s, even against this subpar field. I'd be more optimistic if she ends up facing Akin; in that case I'd move it to Tilt D.
North Dakota: Lean R (Lean R)
Heitkamp appears to be pandering on healthcare and the Balanced Budget Amendment, which either means she's worried or she hopes nobody will notice. People don't like panderers, and that made me less optimistic about her campaign. However, Berg is still unpopular, so we'll see.
Arizona: Lean R (Lean R)
Carmona strikes me as a better candidate than Heitkamp, but Flake is also much better than Berg. In 2016, this same matchup might be a Tossup with demographic change, but for now it's staying at Lean R.
Indiana: Lean R (Likely R)
I'm expecting Lugar to lose the primary, which is why it's only Lean R. I still think Indiana's too red, and people are overestimating Mourdock's extremism. He's not Sharron Angle; he's more like Rob Portman or something.
Nebraska: Likely R (Likely R)
Kerrey really has no chance