With President Obama's announcement that he now support gay marriage (again), I decided to look at a couple things.
1) What are House and Senate Democrats' views on gay marriage and civil unions?
2) Does race play a part in this?
Note that some of my information may be inaccurate; I attempted to research but there's no comprehensive list.
For reference, I am counting both Senate independents as Democrats, and I consider every Blue Dog Democrat plus Mark Critz, Dan Lipinski, and Kurt Schrader as moderates. I also consider 16 Senate Democrats to be moderates; I had to make the cutoff somewhere and you may disagree with me on some, such as Kay Hagan or Dianne Feinstein (the former is a moderate, the latter is not). But I had to draw the line somewhere, and this is where I drew it.
So let's start with the Senators.
As far as I know, no Republican Senators support gay marriage. It's possible some of them support civil unions (particularly among the six who are pro-choice to some extent) but I didn't look into it; commenters can feel free to let me know.
Senate Liberals:
Among the Senate liberals, the statistics are as follows.
Marriage: 81%
Marriage or Civil Unions: 92%
So who are the holdouts?
As far as I can tell, they are:
(Civil Unions only):
Jeff Bingaman, NM
Amy Klobuchar, MN
Bob Casey, PA
Dick Durbin, IL
Three of these four surprised me. Durbin is overwhelmingly liberal on just about every other issue, and Klobuchar is noncontroversial but quote progressive, too. Civil unions, of course, aren't exactly a conservative view, but they're much more moderate nowadays than liberal. Klobuchar, who was previously one of my five favorite senators, probably isn't on that list anymore. Casey, who is Catholic and pro-life, is probably least likely to switch to supporting marriage, and Bingaman is retiring, but Durbin and Klobuchar should be the top targets for "evolution," as both are in pretty safe seats, are very popular in their states, and are liberal. Luckily, Bingaman's likely replacement, Martin Heinrich, supports gay marriage.
The True Holdouts:
Debbie Stabenow, MI
Jay Rockefeller, WV
Herb Kohl, WI
Rockefeller comes from a very socially conservative state and is already very liberal (for West Virginia), so there's little doubt in my mind he'll continue to oppose civil unions, especially with a possibly tough race in 2014 on his mind. Herb Kohl, ironically, is rumored to be gay, although he has never said he is. He's retiring either way, and Democratic nominee Tammy Baldwin is both openly lesbian and a strong supporter of gay marriage. Stabenow is the interesting one. Hopefully after her 2012 defeat of Pete "Spend it Not" Hoekstra she feels safe enough to come out for gay marriage, or at least civil unions. However, Michigan is not a very socially liberal state. They are one of four blue states without anti-bullying laws (along with HI, DE, and NM), one of two that don't bar discrimination in housing (along with DE), one of three that doesn't give gays hospital visitation rights (along with ME and NM) and one of three states nationwide (along with MS and UT) which don't allow gays to adopt children together. So they're not exactly progressive on that front. Still, it's worth a shot to try and convince her.
The Moderates:
Marriage: 0%
Civil Unions: 56%
Like moderates nationally, a majority of moderate Democrats in the Senate support civil unions, although none support marriage.
Supporters:
Claire McCaskill, MO
Jim Webb, VA
Ben Nelson (!), NE
Kent Conrad, ND
Kay Hagan, NC
Tim Johnson, SD
Joe Lieberman, CT
Max Baucus, MT
Jon Tester, MT
McCaskill and Johnson likely have the most to lose from their support; both come from socially conservative states; Hagan isn't helped either. Baucus and Tester are in more libertarian Montana where it likely matters less, and the others are either retiring or in slightly more liberal states. I do think all these officials deserve our applause (other than Lieberman) because they do support a form of equality for gay couples despite serving in vulnerable seats.
Opponents:
Bill Nelson, FL
Joe Manchin, WV
Mark Pryor, AR
Mary Landrieu, LA
Tom Carper, DE
Mark Begich, AK
Mark Warner, VA
Warner and Carper are the two who surprise me here. Carper's state already recognizes civil unions, and he's not socially conservative on anything else; he's more DLC than Blue Dog. Warner is the same way, but more importantly, he's rumored to be coveting The White House. He's not getting through the primary if he doesn't support at least civil unions! The others come from red states or (in Nelson's case) come from swingy states and are very religious. No shockers.
Overall among Democrats:
Marriage: 57%
Civil Unions: 81%
Now to the House...
I decided to separate by race here, because the question of race always comes up with regards to gay marriage. Since there are so many supporters of gay marriage, I'm only going to be listing opponents.
Black Democrats:
Civil Unions only: Corinne Brown, Emanuel Cleaver
No Recognition: Sanford Bishop, GK Butterfield, Hansen Clarke, Lacy Clay, Jim Clyburn, Elijah Cummings, Al Green, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Gregory Meeks, Cedric Richmond, Bobby Rush, David Scott, Terri Sewell, Bennie Thompson
Cleaver is a pleasant surprise, as a preacher I'm glad he's moderately pro-gay. On the other hand, Clarke, Clyburn, and Cummings are all Democrats I admire(d?) I'm now officially supporting pro-marriage Peters over anti-marriage or civil unions Clarke in that primary. It's disappointing none of those three can even come out for civil unions. Sanford Bishop is the only moderate in this group. I'd also like to point out that all four Black members of Congress from California support gay marriage. Home state pride!
Blacks: 56%
Black Non Moderates: 58%
Blacks including Civil Unions: 62%
Black Non Moderates including Civil Unions: 64%
Hispanics:
Civil Unions only: Loretta Sanchez
No Recognition: Ed Pastor, Silvestre Reyes, Joe Baca, Grace Napolitano, Henry Cuellar, Ben Lujan, Ruben Hinojosa
Lujan, another man widely rumored to be gay, is a surprise here. Cuellar and Reyes are both pro-life as well, so that's not very shocking. Baca is all kinds of fail. Pastor and backbencher Napolitano are disappointing; Hinojosa's district isn't super safe so I can understand, I guess. Henry Cuellar is the only one I consider a moderate in this group.
Hispanics: 56%
Hispanic Non Moderates: 59%
Hispanics with Civil Unions: 61%
Hispanic Non Moderates with Civil Unions: 65%
All Asian Represenatives support gay marriage, as far as I can tell, so that's 100% success.
I'm dividing Whites into two groups, liberals and moderates.
White Liberals:
Civil Unions only: Mike Doyle, Gene Green, Steny Hoyer, Dale Kildee, Ron Kind, Carolyn McCarthy, Mike Michaud, Brad Miller, Pete Visclosky, Allyson Schwartz
Schwartz shocks me; I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong about her. Brad Miller is a very disappointing inclusion here as well, and so is Carolyn McCarthy. Many of these others are either rural politicians (Michaud, Kind) or pro-life (Doyle, Kildee). Hoyer and Green can hopefully be changed sometime too.
No Recognition: Marcy Kaptur, Gerry Connolly, Howard Berman, Peter DeFazio, John Dingell, John Larson, Sandy Levin, Nick Rahall, Tim Ryan, Dutch Ruppersberger, David Price, Bob Brady, Russ Carnahan, John Carney
A few groups here. The big shocker: Howard Berman. I bet I'm wrong on him too, but I couldn't find a source saying he supported civil unions. We have a mix of pro-life (Kaptur, Ryan, Rahall) and old people (basically everyone else), plus a couple other surprises in Carnahan, Carney, Larson, and Ruppersberger. Not sure what to say about them.
Moderates:
Nearly all the moderates are in highly competitive seats and don't support civil unions. However, four do. They are Bill Owens, Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, and Tim Holden (good for him, being from such a red district). Nearly the entire Blue Dog Caucus remains opposed to all forms of recognition, but particular displeasure is given by me to Kurt Schrader. The others are in red seats, retiring, or in highly competitive 2012 races. Or are assholes named Dan Lipinski.
Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong about any of these members of Congress.
Whites: 65%
White Non Moderates: 78%
Whites with Civil Unions: 76%
White Non Moderates with Civil Unions: 87%
Blacks: 56%
Black Non Moderates: 58%
Blacks with Civil Unions: 62%
Black Non Moderates with Civil Unions: 64%
Hispanics: 56%
Hispanic Non Moderates: 59%
Hispanics with Civil Unions: 61%
Hispanic Non Moderates with Civil Unions: 65%
Asians: 100%