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Upstate New York: COI Map
The goal here was simple: avoid studying for my sociology final.Beyond that, the goal was: Buffalo seat Rochester seat Syracuse seat 2 Western New York non Buffalo seats North Country seat Albany seat...
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Meet Virginia: 8-3 Democratic in Good Years
I feel like I've finally perfected my Virginia gerrymander, completed in the waning hours of 2011 (BEFORE I left for a party, I do have a life thank you very much)Here we go. First, the GOP vote...
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Why Bachmann's District is Un-Holdable
Inspired by user bjssp, I've decided to do a diary on why Michele Bachmann's district, while winnable against her, is not a district we can hold in the future.First, her district:By my estimation, the...
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More than Matheson: A Democratic Path Back to Relevance in Utah's State Senate
I decided that Utah Democrats, if they hypothetically controlled the State Senate, which possibly won't happen in my entire lifetime, would decide to draw as many swing seats as possible rather than...
View Article2012 Election Preview with Ratings!
I've decided to finally write a ratings diary for President, Governor, Senate, and House (House will be in Part 2)President:Safe Democratic: 182 EV Likely Democratic: New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota...
View ArticlePredictions 2012: The House
So it's time for my House projections. SaoMagnifico already did one, but I'd like to do one anyway.First, from reapportionment, the Republicans gained 2 seats, if I calculated correctly. That's...
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French Election Results Map
It's tough to approximate a 2-party system onto the French election.So what I did was add up the totals of Hollande and Melanchon (two major leftist candidates) and create a "Cook PVI" for each region...
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Fair Pennsylvania
For those who haven't read my hypothetical redistricting diaries before, my definition of fair is the following:1) Don't combine rural and non-rural areas unless required 2) Don't combined different...
View ArticleViews on Gay Marriage in the Democratic Caucus: A Brief Primer
With President Obama's announcement that he now support gay marriage (again), I decided to look at a couple things.1) What are House and Senate Democrats' views on gay marriage and civil unions? 2)...
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4-2 Democratic Louisiana
We're never going to have the trifecta here again, but this would be an awesome map. It's also my belief, although obviously courts may rule against me, that LA losing a seat means it is no longer...
View ArticleTime for Some Ratings! Senate and Governor, Take 2
With primary season nearly over, I'm doing an update to my Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings (with my two old rankings' diaries' ratings in parentheses).Safe = 16 point lead or greater Likely = 12...
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Ohio Redistricting: Boehner's Dilemma
I decided to try drawing Ohio. I stuck to COI as best as I could, but made some tweaks based on competitiveness. I'll explain as I go along. 1st: Steve Chabot (R) vs. Fmr. Rep. Steve Dreihaus (D)...
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2008 vs. 2012: PVI Shifts
I decided to look at the 538 rankings and see how the PVIs of states will change compared to 2008 if everything remains the same. This means they are not my predictions.I'm excluding Alaska, Arizona,...
View ArticleHouse Elections, Six Weeks Out
With a possible mini-wave building, here are my predictions for the House. I'm only calling races Safe, Lean, Tilt, or Tossup. Likely has no use this close to Election Day. Parentheses are my ratings...
View ArticleEarly Retirement Predictions for 2014
I have to write this diary prior to Election Day, because retirements start pretty soon after. What I'm going to do is rank every Senator's likelihood of retirement from 1 (no chance) to 5 (almost...
View ArticleCalifornia's Districts: Downballot and Proposition 8 Numbers and Analysis
I decided to look not just at Presidential numbers, but also Gubernatorial, Senatorial, and Social Issues (as measured by Prop. 8 from 2008). California's PVI is about D+8, so I normalized everything...
View ArticleSenate and Governor Predictions with Margins
This isn't quite my last round of predictions (I'll do one the weekend before Election Day), but this is what I have right now. I'm not going to predict margins on Safe races. Senate unless otherwise...
View ArticlePredictions and Key Counties for Election Night
There are going to be two parts of this diary; Benchmarks and Race Predictions. I’m going to be doing President, Senate, Governor, AND House (House is Part 2, though). So please read through it all,...
View ArticlePredictions: The House
I know there's a rule about clogging the diary bar, but there are sooo few prediction diaries. Here's mine for the House.Double Digit Races:AR-4, NC-11, and NC-13: We can welcome Tom Cotton, Mark...
View ArticlePollster Analysis: 2012 State Polls
I know Nate Silver had something similar to this, but I wanted to do my own pollster analysis. Each poll here is taken October 15 or later, because the state of the race stabilized around then after...
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Georgia Cleanish 8-6 Dem Map
Here we go. This is hypothetical, of course.1st District: Jack Kingston (R) Statistics (from 2008): R+20, 70% White, 23% BlackThis district takes up much of Republican South Georgia. It's very rural,...
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8-4-1 North Carolina
This is my newest stab at an alternate (Democratic) gerrymander of North Carolina, one of my favorite states to redistrict.1st: GK Butterfield (D) Partisan Stats: D+13, 68% Dem Avg Racial Stats: 50%...
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Who Were the Obama-Allen Voters? 2012 Senate and Presidential Comparisons,...
On Daily Kos Elections, many commentators throughout the summer and fall assumed Tim Kaine would outperform Barack Obama's total in Virginia. This turned out to be true. However, commentators also...
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How Could Anyone Vote Romney-Baldwin? 2012 Presidential and Senate...
In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin overcame fears by many that she would be too liberal for the state, aided by Tommy Thompson's weak campaign partially stemming from a very competitive 3-way primary between...
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21st Century Orange County: A Walk-Through
Orange County is one of the few counties in America that conjures up a stereotype almost anywhere in the country. To some, it's beautiful beaches. To others, it's the heart of Cold War-era...
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To Create a More Perfect California: What California's Redistricting...
California's redistricting commission was a grand experiment that, by and large, turned out to be successful. However, I think there were some errors in the map, and I wanted to redraw the state....
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Fair Map of Wisconsin
I like this map because it's fair both in terms of respecting Wisconsin's purple-ness by creating lots of swing districts and because each district makes sense geographically and for the most part...
View Article2004 vs 2012 in Maps: Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia
I love maps, especially ones of election results. They fascinate me, and in fact are the reason I started following politics around the 2004 presidential election. However, too often they're just not...
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2004 vs 2012: Florida and Georgia
In the first part of this series, http://www.dailykos.com/... I explored the causes of Democratic trends in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia, three of the four swing states that have clearly...
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What If We Used 1990s District Lines Forever?: An Alternate History
The following diary is an alternate history. There are two ground rules: 1) As with the 1920 Census, the 2000 reapportionment did not occur, nor did the one in 2010. 2) No districts were altered...
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2004 vs. 2012: The Great Plains
This is part 3 of my installment on the changes between 2004 and 2012 in various states. In Part 1, I examined Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, while in Part 2 I looked at Georgia and Florida....
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Want To Know How Blue An Area Is? Look At Public Transit
The title of this diary may seem intuitive. Liberal areas elect liberals. Liberals like public transit, both for economic and environmental reasons. Conservative areas don't elect liberals....
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A Fair Map of Washington
After a visit to Washington over spring break, I wanted to try my best to draw a COI map of the state, which I don't believe I've seen drawn before. I believe my effort was fair. My guidelines:1)...
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California's White Voters, By County
We all know California, never a lily-white state to start with, has rapidly diversified over the last generation. But California's White vote is far from monolithic. It's not easy task to figure out...
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Seismic Shifts, 1992 to 2008: The South
The Clinton coalition and the Obama coalition both led to electoral college landslides, but with some very different states. Clinton twice triumphed in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky,...
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Seismic Shifts, 1992 to 2008: The Northeast
In Part 1 of this diary series (http://www.dailykos.com/...), I looked at the changes in raw vote totals between 1992 and 2008 in the South. Feel free to refresh your memories.Now, in this next...
View Article2014 Race Ratings: Senate, Governors, and House
In 2012, my race ratings were stellar but not perfect: I blew one state in the presidential race (Florida), one Senate race (Montana), and a dozen House races, although I had the Democrats gaining 8...
View ArticleRace Ratings, Take 2: 6 Weeks Out
I made a batch of previous race ratings about a month and a half ago. While the landscape has not changed drastically, there have been some major shifts. In this diary, I will briefly recap my race...
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Where are the Winnable Voters for Each Party: A Comprehensive Look
What factors cause areas to vote in a certain manner? Inherently we know some of them. But we cannot completely project elections based on one factor alone. After all, the state with the largest...
View ArticleRace Ratings 3.0: Two Weeks Out
Well, it's time for another installment of my race ratings. Here we go! I will put previous ratings in parentheses, with my September ratings first and my August ratings secondTilt = 60% chance of...
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For All the Marbles: My Final Race Ratings of 2014 (with a few maps thrown in)
Well, it's that time again. On Tuesday, everybody will vote, and that means that I need to put myself out there again with some predictions. Last time around, I did quite well. I messed up only one...
View ArticleWhat the Hell is Happening Over There? A Guide to Israel's Upcoming Elections
Israel's politics are complicated, to say the least. They're also absolutely fascinating. Luckily for those of us who love to discuss elections, one is coming up quite soon, on March 17 to be exact....
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The 2015 UK Election, Projected and Mapped
What's that, you say? The 2015 UK election hasn't happened yet? Well, it's happening soon, May to be exact, and thankfully for us there is a website called Electoral Calculus which posts projections...
View ArticleIsraeli Election Liveblog
Hi everyone. The Israeli election is tomorrow (March 17); polls close at 1PM Pacific (and now you East Coasters finally know what it feels to always do the math!). No idea how long results will take....
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UK 2015 Election: Charts and Final Thoughts
Thankfully for those of us who enjoy election data analysis, Lord Ashcroft conducted a huge telephone poll that is very similar to an exit poll, and thus we can examine the voting behavior of various...
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2016 (and some prior history) Under Proportional Representation: An Alternate...
I had to take a few liberties here, but I used 2016 primary results, with some adjustments, to guess how well each of five theoretical parties would do in a 2016 proportional representation election....
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France's Political Geography: Southwestern France
As one of only two countries outside North America I’ve been to more than once, France holds a special place in my heart. France also has a very interesting election coming up over the next year....
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French Political Geography: Part 2
This is part two of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an...
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French Political Geography, Part 3: North By Northeast
This is part three of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an...
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French Political Geography, Part 4: The South
This is part four of a five-part diary on France’s political geography.[Note: Throughout this diary, I will be using the Partisan Voting Index. For those unfamiliar, a PVI of S+3 means that in an...
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